Topographic and Seismic Constraints on the Vulnerability of Himalayan Hydropower

Abstract

We compiled damages to hydropower projects (HPPs) in the wake of Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its main aftershock. Based on 41 records of HPP losses, we identify the main mechanisms determining the degree of loss. We show that, among these mechanisms, earthquake‐triggered landslides had the largest share. Landslides clustered where peak ground acceleration and river steepness Mχ, a metric frequently used in tectonic geomorphology, attain high values. A Bayesian logistic regression reveals that both metrics are credible predictors for HPP damage states. Our study underscores the vulnerability of Himalayan hydropower to landsliding. We estimate that ~25% of existing, currently constructed, and planned HPPs and >10% of potential HPP sites along Himalayan rivers have high probabilities of moderate to severe damage during future earthquake. Our study highlights that HPP hazard assessments need to consider both seismic and the geomorphic setting of HPP sites conjunctively.

The Geomorphic Impact of Outburst Floods: Integrating Observations and Numerical Simulations of the 2000 Yigong Flood, Eastern Himalaya

“…Although typically smaller than the Yigong flood, modern glacial-outburst floods can be just as deadly and damaging to infrastructure (e.g., Richardson & Reynolds, 2000). Significant hazard is also associated with ongoing and planned hydropower projects around the Himalaya and other mountainous regions (e.g., Ahlers et al, 2014;Sattar et al, 2018;Schwanghart et al, 2016Schwanghart et al, , 2018.…”

Timescapes of Himalayan hydropower: Promises, project life cycles, and precarities

“…Further, as several scholars have highlighted, the lives of infrastructures are contingent on constant maintenance and repair to prevent malfunction, disconnection, and ruination (Anand et al, 2018;McDuie-Ra & Chettri, 2020). This is especially the case for hydropower projects and other infrastructures in the Himalayan region, which are frequently interrupted or damaged by earthquakes, landslides, and other geohazards (Bilham, Gaur, & Molnar, 2001;Ives, 2004;Schwanghart, Ryan, & Korup, 2018) and where the erosive power of rivers laden with sediment infamously introduces massive uncertainties (Amrith, 2018;Cortesi, 2018;Thompson et al, 2007). Sedimentation often abbreviates the expected life of reservoir dams, and hydropower turbines and project components are under constant assault from the elements in the Himalaya (Gyawali & Dixit, 2001;McCully, 1996).…”

Understanding the Hydropower and Potential Climate Change Impact on the Himalayan River Regimes—A Study of Local Perceptions and Responses from Himachal Pradesh, India

“…The HPPs in the Himachal Pradesh are installed in more than 5500 m elevation on the Sutlej in Kinnaur to less than 450 m elevation on the Yamuna sub-basin in Sirmour districts (Figure 1). More than half of the HPPs are within 2000-4000 m elevation, which is very vulnerable to landslides, earthquakes [44], and flash floods. The entire Himachal Pradesh is situated in the type-V zone, the highest vulnerable seismic zone as per the National Disaster Management Authority of India (NDMA) ( Figure 10).…”