Topic Variation Detection Method for Detecting Political Business Cycles

Kato, Sota; Nakanishi, Takafumi; Shimauchi, Hirokazu; Ahsan, Budrul

doi:10.1145/3365109.3368787

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Figure 13 shows the share and change point scores of the economic policy topic before and after the Lower House election that was held on February 18,1990. As shown in Fig.…”

Section: Change Point Scorementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study aims to contribute in a similar scope. By extending our earlier paper (Kato et al [18]), we herein propose a new topic variation detection method and apply it to analyze a valuable, albeit underutilized, text dataset containing the Japanese Prime Minister's (PM's) detailed daily schedule for over 32 years. We aim to enhance our understanding of the empirical analysis of the political business cycle (PBC), which is a classic issue that economists and political scientists have been addressing for over four decades (Dubois [5]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time-series topic analysis using singular spectrum transformation for detecting political business cycles

Kato

Nakanishi

Ahsan³

et al. 2021

J Cloud Comp

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Herein, we present a novel topic variation detection method that combines a topic extraction method and a change-point detection method. It extracts topics from time-series text data as the feature of each time and detects change points from the changing patterns of the extracted topics. We applied this method to analyze the valuable, albeit underutilized, text dataset containing the Japanese Prime Minister’s (PM’s) detailed daily activities for over 32 years. The proposed method and data provide novel insights into the empirical analyses of political business cycles, which is a classical issue in economics and political science. For instance, as our approach enables us to directly observe and analyze the PM’s actions, it can overcome the empirical challenges encountered by previous research owing to the unobservability of the PM’s behavior. Our empirical observations are primarily consistent with recent theoretical developments regarding this topic. Despite limitations, by employing a completely novel method and dataset, our approach enhances our understanding and provides new insights into this classic issue.

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“…Figure 13 shows the share and change point scores of the economic policy topic before and after the Lower House election that was held on February 18,1990. As shown in Fig.…”

Section: Change Point Scorementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%