Tools to Enrich Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Coastal Communities in Data-Poor Regions: Application to a Case Study in Madagascar

This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria related to their life-history and level of conservation or exploitation. This analysis is performed separately for three regions of Portugal and two scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To do that, the fourth assessment report IPCC framework for vulnerability assessments was coupled to the outputs of a physical-biogeochemical model allowing to weight the exposure of the species by the expected variability of the environmental variables in the future. The highest vulnerabilities were found for some migratory and elasmobranch species, although overall vulnerability scores were low probably due to the high adaptive capacity of species from temperate ecosystems. Among regions, the highest average vulnerability was estimated for the species in the Central region while higher vulnerabilities were identified under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in the three regions, due to higher expected climatic variability. This work establishes the basis for the assessment of the vulnerability of the human activities relying on marine resources in the context of climate change.

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“…Refs. 33 , 34 ). A first attempt to estimate the vulnerability of the main marine fisheries of Portugal was carried out by Gamito et al 65 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal

Bueno-Pardo

Nobre

Monteiro

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…However, like most coral reefs worldwide, those of Madagascar have been increasingly exposed to various types of large-scale natural and anthropogenic perturbations and local stressors that have worsened their socio-ecological vulnerability and resilience [5,9,[17][18][19]. Overfishing, sedimentation, and thermally induced coral bleaching events have particularly affected the island's coral reefs located around populated cities [20][21][22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Patterns of Coral Community Structure in the Toliara Region of Southwest Madagascar and Implications for Conservation and Management

et al. 2021

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The Great Reef of Toliara, on the southwestern coast of Madagascar, has been documented as harbouring flourishing reef communities in the 1960s, but has since been affected by various threats, causing a coral decline last reported in 2008. In 2017, we examined the spatial heterogeneity in coral community structure in the region of Toliara. Coral assemblages were characterized by a marked spatial variability, with significant variation for most of the descriptors among the three major habitats and also among stations within habitats. We recorded high coral cover, with values >40% at six of the 10 stations, which was associated with high abundance of coral colonies. We also documented the return to an Acropora-dominated coral assemblage. While these positive results suggest a recent return to healthier coral assemblages, they must be tempered, as the diversity that we recorded was lower than in the 1960s. Moreover, we found a high cover of algae at several stations, suggesting that the ecosystem is likely close to the tipping point toward a phase shift. Finally, the population size-structure of major coral taxa was positively skewed, with few large colonies to ensure the replenishment of local populations. The marked spatial variation suggests that marine protected areas should integrate a sufficiently large area to capture the scale of this spatial heterogeneity.

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“…• Use multiple indicators from various data sources and knowledge systems for triangulation and maximum accuracy (5-8). (Hinkel 2011, Debortoli et al 2018, Cochrane et al 2019, Naylor et al 2020) •…”

Section: Referencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harnessing the potential of vulnerability assessments for managing social-ecological systems

Thiault¹,

Jupiter²,

Johnson³

et al. 2021

E&S

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The concept of vulnerability has broadened from initial applications in the fields of risk and hazards, human ecology and resilience to include the management of social-ecological systems (SES). We review how this concept has been operationalized in various contexts and identify opportunities and challenges to apply vulnerability assessments to SES management in the face of social, environmental, and climatic changes. We synthesize these lessons into a 12-step framework to help practitioners scope, design, operationalize, and implement vulnerability assessments that can effectively minimize exposure, reduce sensitivity, and enhance adaptive capacity. We describe the rationale, assumptions, and implications that underlie each step and highlight future directions that are critically needed to further enable vulnerability assessments to address real-world sustainability challenges. These include applying biocultural approaches, building knowledge about SES vulnerability to nonclimate stressors, and anticipating potential trade-offs and maladaptation. The framework presented provides a roadmap for the development of integrated vulnerability assessments that are robust, context-specific, and relevant to the management of SES.

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Tools to Enrich Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Coastal Communities in Data-Poor Regions: Application to a Case Study in Madagascar

Cited by 24 publications

References 69 publications

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal

Spatial Patterns of Coral Community Structure in the Toliara Region of Southwest Madagascar and Implications for Conservation and Management

Harnessing the potential of vulnerability assessments for managing social-ecological systems

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