Tools for Estimating the Effectiveness of Import-Substituting Modernization: Case in the Agriculture of Russia

Abstract

The paper explores the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of import substitution, justifies the need to develop a new tool that allows conducting a comprehensive analysis of the impact of import substitution policies on economic modernization. The authors' methodology for estimating import-substituting modernization based on an integral indicator is proposed and its practical approval is carried out using agriculture in Russia as an example. The analysis of the results allows the authors to conclude that the import-substituting modernization process is uneven and slow. To activate and accelerate the processes, it is necessary to stimulate domestic demand. The developed tools react quite sensitively to changes in the industry and make it possible to identify cause-effect relationships in a structured factorial analysis of processes.