Tool for Nervousness Analysis in a Rolling Planning Environment via Historical Data

Abstract

This paper analyses the modifications of plans exchanged between supply chain actors in a tactical planning rolling horizon process. A particular focus is on the changes of planned quantities in order to respond to fluctuating demand or to adapt to internal contingencies of the organization. They create instability and nervousness in the planning system. This paper presents a data-driven study to compare the behavior of planning decision makers in a context of certain and uncertain demand. We show through simulation and statistical analysis the effect of decision characteristics of one actor on the system nervousness and the resulting uncertainty for the other actors.