Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince

Gunn, Lachlan J.; Chapeau‐Blondeau, François; McDonnell, Mark D.; Davis, B.R.; Allison, Andrew; Abbott, Derek

doi:10.1098/rspa.2015.0748

Cited by 27 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…It is however possible to ensure that reviews or collective decision-making is beneficial for the forensic sciences. A large body of empirical research shows that group decisions are often most accurate when the independent decisions of individual group members are combined [139]. Indeed, aggregating the independent responses of many individuals tends to produce a remarkably accurate decision.…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners

et al. 2017

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Human factors and their implications for forensic science have attracted increasing levels of interest across criminal justice communities in recent years. Initial interest centred on cognitive biases, but has since expanded such that knowledge from psychology and cognitive science is slowly infiltrating forensic practices more broadly. This article highlights a series of important findings and insights of relevance to forensic practitioners. These include research on human perception, memory, context information, expertise, decision-making, communication, experience, verification, confidence, and feedback. The aim of this article is to sensitise forensic practitioners (and lawyers and judges) to a range of potentially significant issues, and encourage them to engage with research in these domains so that they may adapt procedures to improve performance, mitigate risks and reduce errors. Doing so will reduce the divide between forensic practitioners and research scientists as well as improve the value and utility of forensic science evidence.

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Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners

et al. 2017

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“…In ecology, the periodic alternation of certain organisms between nomadic and colonial behaviors * david.saakian@tdt.edu.vn has also been suggested as a manifestation of the paradox [31]. Recently, there is an intriguing finding of Parrondo-like phenomena in a Bayesian approach to the modeling of the work by a jury [32]: The unanimous decision of its members has a low confidence. The developments of Parrondo's paradox have cut across many disciplines, with a wide range of possible applications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Allison mixture and the two-envelope problem

2017

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In the present study, we have investigated the Allison mixture, a variant of the Parrondo's games where random mixing of two random sequences creates autocorrelation. We have obtained the autocorrelation function and mutual entropy of two elements. Our analysis shows that the mutual information is nonzero even if two distributions have identical average values. We have also considered the two-envelope problem and solved for its exact probability distribution.

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“…different integers M for both games [20], the Allison mixture [21], where the random mixing of two random sequences creates some autocorrelation [22], and two envelope game problems [23]. Especially intriguing is the recent finding of a Parrondo's effect-like phenomenon in a Bayesian approach to the modelling of the work of a jury [24]: the unanimous decision of its members has a low confidence. All the mentioned works consider the situation with random walks, when there are random choices between different strategies during any step, yielding a qualitatively different result than in case of a fixed strategy.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…All the mentioned works consider the situation with random walks, when there are random choices between different strategies during any step, yielding a qualitatively different result than in case of a fixed strategy. In [24] we have a single choice between the strategies during all the rounds.In our recent work [25] we calculated the variance for the history independent case, as the variance of the distributions (volatilities) is important in economics. Now we apply a Fourier transform technique to solve exactly the probability distribution function.…”

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Exact probability distribution functions for Parrondo's games

2016

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We consider discrete time Brownian ratchet models: Parrondo's games. Using the Fourier transform, we calculate the exact probability distribution functions for both the capital dependent and history dependent Parrondo's games. We find that in some cases there are oscillations near the maximum of the probability distribution, and after many rounds there are two limiting distributions, for the odd and even total number of rounds of gambling. We assume that the solution of the aforementioned models can be applied to portfolio optimization.The Parrondo's games [1]- [8], related to the Brownian ratchets [9]-[15] are interesting phenomena at the intersection of game theory, econophysics and statistical physics, see [8] for the inter-disiplinary applications. In case of Brownian ratchets the particle moves in a potential, which randomly changes between 2 versions. For each there is a detailed balance condition. On average there is a motion due to the random switches between two potentials. The phenomenon is certainly related to portfolio optimization [16], [17]. In the related situation in economics, one is using the "volatility pumping" strategy in portfolio optimization, for two asset portfolios, keeping one half of the capital in the first asset, the other half in the second asset with high volatility [18].J. M. R. Parrondo invented his game following Brownian ratchets for the discrete time case [1], to model gambling. An agent uses two biased coins for the gambling, and both strategies are loosing. In some cases a random combination of two loosing games is a winning game. It is interesting that the opposite situation is also possible, a random combination of two winning games can give a loosing game.Parrondo's games have been considered either on the one dimensional axis with some periodic potential, or by looking at the time dependent version of the game parameters.For the first case the state of the system is characterized by the current value of the money X, and the choice of the strategy. There is a period M defining the rules, how capital X can move up or down. The rules of the game depend on Mod(X, M ), where M is the period of the "potential". Originally M = 3 games were considered, then M = 2 versions of Parrondo's games were constructed [7], [19]. For the history dependent versions of the game the current rules of the game depend on the past, whether there was a growth of capital in the previous rounds or not.Later many modifications of the games were invented, * Electronic address: saakian@yerphi.am i.e. different integers M for both games [20], the Allison mixture [21], where the random mixing of two random sequences creates some autocorrelation [22], and two envelope game problems [23]. Especially intriguing is the recent finding of a Parrondo's effect-like phenomenon in a Bayesian approach to the modelling of the work of a jury [24]: the unanimous decision of its members has a low confidence. All the mentioned works consider the situation with random walks, when there are random choices between differ...

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Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince

Cited by 27 publications

References 27 publications

Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners

Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners

Allison mixture and the two-envelope problem

Exact probability distribution functions for Parrondo's games

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