Tolerance and Intolerance for Uncertainty as Predictors of Decision Making and Risk Acceptance in Gaming Strategies of the Iowa Gambling Task

Abstract

Background. This article reports on the results of an empirical study of interrelationships between indicators of decision-making strategies (indexed by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT) and traits of tolerance and intolerance for uncertainty that capture the unity of cognitive and personality components of situational representations.Objective. Our study tested the hypothesis that overcoming uncertainty in decision making goes beyond cognitive representations of the task but instead is rooted in the construction of the amodal image of an uncertain situation that captures the meaning regulation of perception and action. We hypothesized that when a person is faced with multi-stage decisions, their strategies reflect the contribution of individual differences in attitudes towards uncertainty.Design. Using data obtained from n = 60 typically developing adults (68% men; M age = 30.58), we examined the contribution of tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty to a variety of IGT dependent variables at five different stages of the game.Results. The data was analyzed using the mixed linear model method as implemented in the lme4 package for R. The results indicated that tolerance for uncertainty significantly contributes to the initial level of behavioral risk, ensuring readiness for decision making under uncertainty. Conclusion.Tolerance for uncertainty plays an important role in early stages of orientation in an uncertain modeled game situation, and contributes to the productive development of probabilistic expectations. Intolerance for uncertainty, on the other hand, was shown to contribute to risk in decision making after trial failure, potentially limiting learning in uncertain conditions through risk aversion.

The Relationship Between Uncertainty and Affect

“…Persons who report higher UT are more likely to report lower negative affect and higher life satisfaction (Garrison et al, 2017), as well as higher self-esteem and creativity (Pavlova, 2018). Higher UT also appears to be associated with greater risk-taking (Kornilova et al, 2018), whereas lower UT and lower tolerance for ambiguity has been associated with behavioral outcomes indicative of risk aversion (Tsui, 1993; Kornilova et al, 2018). UT appears positively related to adaptability and adaptive readiness (Shamionov, 2017), and more specifically with the ability to cope constructively with chance events (Kim et al, 2016).…”

Computer-Based Prognostic Task Measurements as Indicators of Uncertainty Acceptance

“…Personal Decision-Making Factors Questionnaire (LFR-21) developed by Kornilova [ 30 ]. The questionnaire consisted of 21 yes-or-no statements divided into two scales: (1) rationality, an inclination for a broader orientation in the decision situation, and (2) personal risk-readiness, willingness and ability to make and perform choices in uncertain situations.…”

“…New questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty (NTN) developed by Kornilova [ 30 ]. The questionnaire consisted of 33 statements, evaluated with a seven-point Likert scale (from “completely disagree” to “completely agree”).…”

The Mediated Effect of Stress on Uncertainty and Students’ Perceived Performance in Online Classes: A Mediation Analysis

“…Literature generally showed that uncertainty correlates with students' academic performance negatively. For instance, Kornilova et al [9] tested 60 typically developing adults and examined the contribution of tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty. The result showed that tolerance of uncertainty contributes to risk in decision making after trial failure, potentially limiting learning in uncertain conditions through risk aversion.…”