To Mitigate or to Adapt: Is that the Question? Observations on an Appropriate Response to the Climate Change Challenge to Development Strategies

Abstract

Climate change is a new and important challenge to development strategies. In light of the current literature a framework for assessing responses to this challenge is provided. The presence of climate change makes it necessary to at least review development strategies-even in apparently nonclimate-sensitive and nonpolluting sectors. There is a need for an integrated portfolio of actions ranging from avoiding emissions (mitigation) to coping with impacts (adaptation) and to consciously accepting residual damages. Proactive (ex ante) adaptation is critical, but subject to risks of regrets when the magnitude or location of damages is uncertain. Uncertainty on location favors nonsite-specific actions, or reactive (ex post) adaptation. However, some irreversible losses cannot be compensated for. Thus, mitigation might be in many cases the cheapest long-term solution to climate change problems and the most important to avoid thresholds that may trigger truly catastrophic consequences. To limit the risks that budget constraints prevent developing countries from financing reactive adaptation-especially since climate shocks might erode the fiscal base-"rainy-day funds" may have to be developed within countries and at the global level for transfer purposes. Finally, more research is required on the impacts of climate change, on modeling the interrelations between mitigation and adaptation, and on operationalizing the framework. JEL codes: O10, Q54, Q56 Until recently, policymakers and development experts could at least assume that where there was water today, there would still be water in the future. Or that

Regime shifts and uncertainty in pollution control

“…The purchase, at the given cost of R per unit change in γ 2 , has no effect on the pre-event coefficient γ 1 . It cannot, however, be delayed until the shift occurs, because then it would not be able to undo the shift damage and affect γ 2 (in other words, we consider proactive adaptation, see Smit et al, 2000;Shalizi and Lecocq, 2010). Under this specification, uncertainty regarding the time of shift plays a major role in the determination of the adaptation policy.…”

“…Suspecting that mitigation policies may not suffice to prevent the shift, an economy can invest resources in means and methods to moderate the damage associated with the shift (e.g. Kane and Shogren, 2000;Smit et al, 2000;Shalizi and Lecocq, 2010). For example, a flat coastal country such as the Netherlands might judge that global efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions are not intense enough to avoid a sea-level rise and the catastrophic floods it entails.…”

Development Challenges in the Age of Climate Change: The Case of Sidama

“…Mitigation refers to actions and processes such as technological change or substitution that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks (IPCC, 2007;Sumi et al, 2010;Shalizi & Lecocq, 2009). Adaptation, on the other hand, refers to adjustments in ecological-socio-economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects or impacts (Smit et al 2000, p. 225).…”

“…One would argue that, with smaller contribution to climate change, developing countries face the effects nonetheless and they have to adapt to climate change in order to reduce their current and future vulnerability to climate change (Shalizi and Lecocq, 2009). Some scholars note that while opportunities for mitigation could be limited to some countries, the need for adaptation is felt by all countries (Shalizi & Lecocq, 2009).…”

“…One would argue that, with smaller contribution to climate change, developing countries face the effects nonetheless and they have to adapt to climate change in order to reduce their current and future vulnerability to climate change (Shalizi and Lecocq, 2009). Some scholars note that while opportunities for mitigation could be limited to some countries, the need for adaptation is felt by all countries (Shalizi & Lecocq, 2009). As climate change is expected to increase in the coming decades, and there is growing realisation that vulnerable countries and communities will be disproportionately adversely affected, much more attention is now paid to adaptation than was previously the case (Huq & Reid, 2004, p.15).…”