TitleClimate Change will Weaken the Ability of Natural Enemies to Control the Asian Longhorned Beetle, <i>Anoplophora glabripennis</i> (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Abstract

The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB), Anoplophora glabripennis is a forestry pest found worldwide. ALB causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of ALB. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China and Xinjiang, and their suitable areas were superimposed to evaluate the pest control ability of D. helophoroides and D. major. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of ALB was greater than that of D. helophoroides and D. major, which would lead to fewer natural enemies encountered by ALB during migration, reduce the control ability of natural enemies, and increase the risk of disastrous outbreaks in the invaded areas. We found that the damage caused by ALB was not serious in the areas with natural enemies and very serious in the areas without natural enemies. We suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests, as this is more conducive to assessing the risks of invasive organisms to the local ecological environment.