Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions

Abstract

We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople’s climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople’s holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.

Missing the (Tipping) Point: The Role of Climate Tipping Points on Public Risk Perceptions in Norway

“…We observed that the strongest change in risk perceptions occurs among those who already are concerned about climate change, which aligns with findings by van Beek et al (2022), although our survey-embedded experiment was significantly less engaging than the serious game deployed in their study. Our results contrast with recent findings by Formanski et al (2022) who found no difference in risk perceptions between participants presented with portrayals of linear versus non-linear climate change. One explanation for this difference might be that Formanski et al focused on a single characteristic of tipping points (non-linearity), which might not be the feature that generates most concern.…”

“…Interventions that rely on alternative learning strategies should be explored, as illustrated by van Beek et al (2022), who combined role play, active learning strategies and storytelling to increase understanding of climate tipping points with promising results. Formanski et al (2022) suggests comparing active and passive learning strategies in order to further investigate how climate tipping points are understood. Our analysis provides modest evidence for the hypothesis that climate tipping point communication can increase public concern about climate change compared to more conventional, linear descriptions of climate change (Lenton et al, 2008;Russill, 2015).…”

“…The work by Bellamy and Hulme already indicated that increases in concern were limited to a distinct social group sharing a particular worldview. And a study by Formanski et al (2022) found no difference between climate risk perceptions related to linear versus non-linear climate change.…”

Public perceptions of climate tipping points

“…What is more, the public are significantly more doubtful about humanity’s response to climate tipping points specifically. This contrasts with recent research showing no difference between perceptions of linear and nonlinear climate changes (Formanski et al, 2022), and is consistent with previous research showing that climate tipping points can instil a sense of fatalism (Bellamy and Hulme, 2011). While fearful representations of climate change are good at attracting attention – as illustrated by the rapidly growing invocation of climate tipping points in print and online media shown in Figure 2 – they are nevertheless an ineffective tool for motivating genuine personal engagement with climate change (Crucifix and Annan, 2019; O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009).…”

“…In a second study on 287 respondents at the University of East Anglia, climate tipping points were found to be most concerning among those with egalitarian values and produced a strong fatalistic narrative of helplessness, societal collapse and catastrophe (Bellamy and Hulme, 2011). In contrast, a third study on 381 respondents to an online experiment showed that nonlinear portrayals of climate change do not lead to perceptions of climate change being less controllable or more catastrophic (Formanski et al, 2022).…”