Tiny warming of residual anthropogenicCO₂

Abstract

The residual fraction of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions which has not been captured by carbon sinks and remains in the atmosphere, is estimated by two independent experimental methods which support each other: the 13 C /12 C ratio and the temperature-independent fraction of d( CO 2)/dt on a yearly scale after subtraction of annual fluctuations the amplitude ratio of which reaches a factor as large as 7. The anthropogenic fraction is then used to evaluate the additional warming by analysis of its spectral contribution to the outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) measured by infrared spectrometers embarked in satellites looking down. The anthropogenic CO 2 additional warming extrapolated in 2100 is found lower than 0.1°C in the absence of feedbacks. The global temperature data are fitted with an oscillation of period 60 years added to a linear contribution. The data which support the 60-year cycle are summarized, in particular sea surface temperatures and sea level rise measured either by tide gauge or by satellite altimetry. The tiny anthropogenic warming appears consistent with the absence of any detectable change of slope of the 130-year-long linear contribution to the temperature data before and after the onset of large CO 2 emissions.

Saturation of the Infrared Absorption by Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

“…[15] Clark, R., "A dynamic coupled thermal reservoir approach to atmospheric energy transfer Part II: Applications" Energy and Environment 24 (3,4) 341-359 (2013).…”

“…2 1 A realistic value for the increase of the CO 2 concentration per year is 2 ppm/year, e.g. [3], implying 150 years for the doubling of a CO 2 concentration of 300 ppm. 2 The known empirical value of the sun radiation of 1365 W/m 2 with an albedo of 0.3 yields 956 W/m 2 absorption.…”

Climate Scientists Virtually Unanimous

“…My search found 24,210 articles by 69,406 authors. In my judgment, only five articles rejected AGW: Avakyan (2013aAvakyan ( , 2013b, Gervais (2014), Happer (2014), and Hug (2013. These represent a proportion of 1 article in 4,842 or 0.021%.…”

Commentaire sur « Lu pour vous : L'Innocence du carbone » - Réponse de l'auteur

“…Gageons que la prochaine n'excédera pas le fameux seuil des 2°C… L'augmentation moyenne du CO 2 ne dépasse pas 0,5 % par an depuis 20 ans 6 dans un contexte pourtant business as usual. Ainsi, en dépit du fait qu'en négligeant le cycle de 60 ans les modèles exagè-rent le réchauffement (Gervais, 2014), comme ils exagéraient le refroidissement observé de 1945 à 1975, l'extrapolation de la tendance actuelle de 0,5 % par an combinée à la valeur basse de la fourchette privilégiée par les experts, donnerait seulement 0,4°C supplémentaire en 2100, pas 4,8°C.…”