Time Versus Rate in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Temperature-Dependent Development Models

Kramer, David A.; Stinner, R. E.; Hain, Fred P.

doi:10.1093/ee/20.2.484

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…For both time and rate, the respective coefÞcients of determination were adequate (rate model, R 2 ϭ 0.9949, time model, R 2 ϭ 0.9889). Kramer et al (1991) suggested that time would be the best predictor because the model was empirically derived from time.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature-Dependent Development ofOtiorhynchus ovatus(Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Pupae

Umble

Fisher

2000

Environ Entomol

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature-Dependent Development ofOtiorhynchus ovatus(Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Pupae

Umble

Fisher

2000

Environ Entomol

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“…Kramer et al (1991) showed that erroneous predictions could occur in least square estimations when model parameters are estimated by using some modiÞed form of data, such as rate (1/ developmental time). Minimizing the squared error for development rate is not the same as minimizing the squared error for developmental time, especially in the longer developmental time range.…”

Section: Experimental Arenas and Hydroprene Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroprene Prolongs Developmental Time and Increases Mortality of Indianmeal Moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Eggs

Mohandass¹,

Arthur²,

Zhu³

et al. 2006

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Eggs of the Indianmeal moth, Plodia interpunctella (Hübner), were exposed to the labeled rate of hydroprene (1.9 x 10(-3) mg [AI]/cm2) sprayed on concreted petri dishes. These eggs were exposed for 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 h and until hatching (continuous exposure) at temperatures of 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32 degrees C and 57% RH until the emergence of first instars. The developmental time and egg mortality were significantly influenced by temperature and exposure periods. At 16 degrees C, hydroprene did not cause differences in developmental time when eggs were exposed for different periods. At temperatures >16 degrees C, both exposure period and temperature influenced developmental time. The maximum developmental time (15.0 +/- 0.2 d) occurred at 16 degrees C, and the minimum developmental time (3.2 +/- 0.3 d) occurred at 32 degrees C. Mortality increased when eggs were exposed to hydroprene for longer periods at all of the five tested temperatures. The greatest mortality (81.6 +/- 2.1%) occurred when eggs were continuously exposed on treated surfaces at 32 degrees C. We used developmental time instead of rate (1/ developmental time) to fit simple linear or polynomial regression models to the development data. Appropriate models for developmental time and mortality were chosen based upon lack-of-fit tests. The regression models can be used in predictive simulation models for the population dynamics of Indianmeal moth to aid in optimizing use of hydroprene for insect management.

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“…Interpretation of insect population dynamics and the formulation of phenological models require accurate description of development in relation to temperature (Liu et al, 1995). Numerous attempts have been made to develop temperature-dependent models of insect development that can be applied under a wide range of conditions (see Ratte, 1985;Krammer et al, 1991;Liu et al, 1995 for reviews).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature‐dependent development of Xyleborus fornicatus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), the shot‐hole borer of tea in Sri Lanka: Implications for distribution and abundance

Walgama

Zalucki

2007

Insect Science

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The effect of temperature on the rate of development of Xyleborus fornicatus (Eichh.) was determined by rearing individuals under a range of constant temperatures (15–32°C). Rates of development changed in a linear fashion over a wide range of temperatures. Estimates of lower development thresholds were obtained for eggs (15.7±0.5°C), larvae (15.8±0.8°C) and pupae (14.3±1.4°C) and the degree days (DD) for development were 70±4.4, 95±8.5 and 72±5.1 DD, respectively. Optimum temperature for development was around 30°C for all stages. Temperature fluctuation in cooler High Country areas (above 1400 m) with a mean temperature around 15°C seems to be critical for the development of the pest, which may be responsible for the near absence of pest in those areas. Temperature fluctuations (18–30°C) in the Mid Country region (600–1200 m) favor the development of the pest compared to development under constant conditions. The altitudinal distribution of the shot‐hole borer across tea growing areas in Sri Lanka is, therefore, mainly governed by temperature.

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Time Versus Rate in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Temperature-Dependent Development Models

Cited by 20 publications

References 0 publications

Temperature-Dependent Development ofOtiorhynchus ovatus(Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Pupae

Temperature-Dependent Development ofOtiorhynchus ovatus(Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Pupae

Hydroprene Prolongs Developmental Time and Increases Mortality of Indianmeal Moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Eggs

Temperature‐dependent development of Xyleborus fornicatus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), the shot‐hole borer of tea in Sri Lanka: Implications for distribution and abundance

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