Abstract:In the wake of an unprecedented increase in the trade policy-related uncertainty of the US since 2017, we analyze the ability of a newspaper-based trade policy uncertainty index of the US in predicting the growth rate of emerging market economies using a novel multivariate time-varying causality framework. We provide overwhelming evidence of the role of trade uncertainty in negatively impacting the growth of emerging markets in a statistically significant manner, with the effect being on the rise since the Gre… Show more
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