Time-varying Decision-making Method for Multi-objective Regulation of Water Resources

Dong, Zengchuan; Ni, Xiaokuan; Chen, Mufeng; Yao, Hongyi; Jia, Wenhao; Zhong, Jia-Xing; Ren, Li

doi:10.1007/s11269-021-02901-8

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…use the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method (Dong et al, 2021) to obtain y  , and the steps are as follows:…”

Section: Weighted Topsis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index

Ding

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The long-term operation of the reservoir at the flood limit water level in the flood season is not conducive to the exertion of the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir, especially in the flood free period, the operation of the reservoir at the flood limit water level will cause a certain waste of resources. On the one hand, with the continuous improvement of the forecast accuracy, the effective forecast period of flood forecast will continue to extend, when there is excess water in the flood free period, the water level can be raised instead of abandoning the water to increase the benefit of power generation. If there is a flood, it can be discharged within the effective forecast period of flood forecast to make the water level drop back to the flood limit level, so as to ensure the safety of flood control; On the other hand, affected by the forecast uncertainty and other factors, the higher the operating water level in the flood free period, the greater the risk that the water level can return to the flood limit water level through discharge, and the decision-making based only on the power generation benefit and risk rate is difficult to deal with the possible large-scale flood events in the future. This study proposes a dynamic water level decision-making system in flood free period. The system considers three factors: power generation benefit, discharge in the effective forecast period of flood forecast and risk rate. It can provide decision-makers with a variety of decision-making schemes and screen the optimal scheme, thus improving the operational benefit of hydropower station in flood season and reducing flood control risk. Firstly, historical data and various flood season staging methods are used to divide the flood season into multiple sub-seasons, and then the maximum inflow process in the effective forecast period of flood forecast in each sub-season is selected. According to this inflow process, the upper limit of operating water level in the flood free period of each sub-season is determined based on the reservoir discharge capacity, and the operating water level points and discharge ratio are discretized, Then the multi-order Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) and Monte Carlo method are used to calculate the risk rate. Then, the scheme set is established by the three variables of power generation benefit, discharge ratio and risk rate. Finally, the weighted Topsis method is used to determine the optimal scheme. In the practical application, the influence of each risk factor on the risk rate and the influence of weight on the final decision are also compared and analyzed. This method has been verified in Youjiang reservoir in Yujiang River Basin. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Combined with the discharge in the forecast period, the reservoir operating water level has a certain lifting space in the flood free period, which can effectively reduce the waste of resources. (2) In the discharge process in the forecast period, runoff forecast error and discharge error are the two factors that have the greatest impact on the risk rate, and the multi-order MCMC method effectively reflects the relationship between the adjacent periods of runoff forecast error, and its simulation process is closer to the reality. (3) Topsis with the combination of AHP and entropy weight method can fully consider the characteristics of power generation benefit, discharge ratio and risk rate, and it is effective to select the optimal solution from the set of non-inferior schemes. This method provides a new idea for determining the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season.

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“…use the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method (Dong et al, 2021) to obtain y  , and the steps are as follows:…”

Section: Weighted Topsis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index

Ding

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The transformation from single-objective to multi-objective research is necessary to develop water resources and fully improve comprehensive reservoir benefits. There are typically two solutions for the multi-objective optimal operation of reservoirs: (1) Analyze the competition and coordination of objectives to achieve the transformation from a multi-objective problem to a single-objective problem, such as the main objective method [19], comprehensive index method [20], and comprehensive evaluation method [21]. (2) Adopt multi-objective evolutionary algorithms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Ecology-Oriented Single–Multi-Objective Optimal Operation Modeling and Decision-Making Method in the Case of the Ganjiang River

Liu,

Mo,

Lou

et al. 2024

Water

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Hydro power has provided significant economic benefits to society due to its cleanliness and convenience. As the number of hydropower stations has increased, many serious ecological issues have also emerged. This study uses Wan’an Reservoir as its research object and investigates single–multi-objective optimal operation and decision-making regarding reservoirs for ecology-oriented operation, to meet ecological water demand and seek the optimal operation schemes for energy generation and ecological benefits. The full-process research is conducted based on the “objective-modeling constraint optimization scheme decision-making” framework. The Mann–Kendall test and ordered clustering method were used to diagnose the hydrological variation in the basin. Based on this, a hierarchical and phased ecological flow process was derived. The objectives were defined according to the flow process, and optimal operation models were constructed. The differential evolution algorithm (DE) and improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) were used to solve the models. A non-fitting curve method was used to determine the approximate inflection point of the Pareto front curve, and the curve was fitted linearly according to the approximate inflection point to obtain the conversion formula between the objectives. Based on the coefficient of variation and Mahalanobis distance, a new multi-attribute decision-making method for reservoir operation, CV-ITOPSIS, was constructed by improving the traditional TOPSIS. The results show that: (1) There is a piecewise linear contradiction between energy generation and ecological objectives, and the contradiction intensifies with an increase in incoming water frequency. (2) Before the approximate inflection point, the head significantly influences the conversion rate from the energy generation to ecology, while the discharge flow is the major influencing factor after the inflection point. The inflection point and the formula for the piecewise straight line can reveal the conversion law between the two objectives. (3) CV-ITOPSIS considers the degree of differentiation of index data and fully considers the correlation between indicators while retaining the good evaluation performance of the traditional method. It recommends the optimal benefit scheme for a multi-objective non-inferior solution set. The research results provide a theoretical foundation and decision support for the optimal ecological operation of the Ganjiang River Basin.

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“…Li et al [15] tackled challenges in sustainable water management for ecosystems and agriculture in China's Heihe River Basin. Dong et al [16] developed a model that optimally reconciled power generation with ecological conservation along the lower stretches of the Jinsha River. Lastly, Bai et al [3] proposed various ecological flow strategies and made recommendations for the Hanjiang to Weihe River transition, factoring in seasonal variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilizing the Sobol’ Sensitivity Analysis Method to Address the Multi-Objective Operation Model of Reservoirs

Wang,

Zhao,

2023

Water

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The operation of reservoirs has significantly influenced the river ecological system. Upholding the ecological integrity of rivers during reservoir operations has been the focus of research over the years. When the Dahuofang reservoir project started, focus moved to ecological goals to address the Biliuhe reservoir’s environmental issues. The water strategy limits usage for various purposes and outlines the diversion route, complicating Biliuhe operations. In this study, to comprehend the effects of individual water level guidelines and their combined influence on these goals, the Sobol’ sensitivity analysis was introduced as an initial measure to tackle the optimization challenge. The results show that removing the insensitive water levels during specific periods of reservoir scheduling lines and beginning with sensitive water levels for local optimization to identify viable solutions, and then moving to wider optimization, significantly enhances the search efficiency, solution quality, and operational speed compared with an exhaustive search without any preceding steps. This sensitivity analysis technique is crucial for fine-tuning multi-objective reservoir operations.

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Time-varying Decision-making Method for Multi-objective Regulation of Water Resources

Cited by 15 publications

References 30 publications

Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index

Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index

An Ecology-Oriented Single–Multi-Objective Optimal Operation Modeling and Decision-Making Method in the Case of the Ganjiang River

Utilizing the Sobol’ Sensitivity Analysis Method to Address the Multi-Objective Operation Model of Reservoirs

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