Time-varying causal impacts of the continental US weather risks on food price

Cai, Yifei; Chang, Hao-Wen; Chang, Tsangyao; Țăran, Alexandra-Mădălina; Pirtea, Marilen

doi:10.1080/13504851.2023.2186344

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Monthly T90 (T10) tracks the change in the frequency of temperature above the 90th percentile (below the 10th percentile for T10) relative to the reference period (1961 to 1990), and it is the aggregated value on gridded data at the resolution of 2.5 by 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude. We refer to [24,25] for extensional studies on the interplay of climate changes, health risks, insurance, agriculture and macroeconomics. In this study, we used the monthly T90 and T10 with unsmoothed and unstandardized values.…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bivariate extreme value analysis of extreme temperature and mortality in Canada, 2000-2020

Zhang,

Wang,

Ren

et al. 2024

BMC Public Health

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Climate change increases the risk of illness through rising temperature, severe precipitation and worst air pollution. This paper investigates how monthly excess mortality rate is associated with the increasing frequency and severity of extreme temperature in Canada during 2000-2020. The extreme associations were compared among four age groups across five sub-blocks of Canada based on the datasets of monthly T90 and T10, the two most representative indices of severe weather monitoring measures developed by the actuarial associations in Canada and US. We utilize a combined seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and bivariate Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method to investigate the extreme association via the extreme tail index $$\chi$$ χ and Pickands dependence function plots. It turns out that it is likely (more than 10%) to occur with excess mortality if there are unusual low temperature with extreme intensity (all $$\chi >0.1$$ χ > 0.1 except Northeast Atlantic (NEA), Northern Plains (NPL) and Northwest Pacific (NWP) for age group 0-44), while extreme frequent high temperature seems not to affect health significantly (all $$\chi \le 0.001$$ χ ≤ 0.001 except NWP). Particular attention should be paid to NWP and Central Arctic (CAR) since population health therein is highly associated with both extreme frequent high and low temperatures (both $$\chi =0.3182$$ χ = 0.3182 for all age groups). The revealed extreme dependence is expected to help stakeholders avoid significant ramifications with targeted health protection strategies from unexpected consequences of extreme weather events. The novel extremal dependence methodology is promisingly applied in further studies of the interplay between extreme meteorological exposures, social-economic factors and health outcomes.

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Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%