Time trend of mesothelioma incidence in the United States and projection of future cases: An update based on SEER data for 1973 through 2005

Abstract

The time trend of mesothelioma incidence and projections of future cases provide useful information for analyzing proposed public health interventions where asbestos exposure may be an issue, evaluating regulatory proposals, and estimating the remaining potential costs of programs to compensate individuals with asbestos-related diseases. We used the April 2008 release of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, which covers 1973 through 2005, to analyze the time trends in age-adjusted mesothelioma incidence and to estimate an age and birth-cohort model to project the number of future mesothelioma cases. The increase in the number of SEER cancer registries from 13 to 17 in 2000 had little effect on the time pattern of age-adjusted mesothelioma incidence, and the pattern over time of pleural mesothelioma was indistinguishable from the pattern for total mesothelioma defined as sum of pleural and peritoneal cases. Our analysis suggests that the SEER registries viewed as a sample of the U.S. population over-represents high mesothelioma incidence, a fact that we accounted for in our projections. For 2008 we estimate approximately 2,400 cases, with asbestos the likely cause in 58%. We project that asbestos will no longer be a factor in mesothelioma cases after the year 2042. For 2008 through 2042, we estimate slightly more than 68,000 total cases, with asbestos the likely cause in 34%.

Global mesothelioma deaths reported to the World Health Organization between 1994 and 2008

“…For example, there was a significant decrease in the United States, which ranked first in the number of deaths, a nonsignificant increase in the United Kingdom, which ranked second, and a significant increase in Japan, which ranked third. These trends are consistent with previous reports 9, [21][22][23] and may reflect the wax and wane of disease with historical asbestos use. 24 Accordingly, the burden of disease may be shifting towards countries that used asbestos more recently, such as those in Asia and, to a lesser extent, middleand low-income countries.…”

Novel systemic therapy against malignant pleural mesothelioma

“…Physicians in the United States diagnose approximately 2,500 new cases per year (1). MPM affects more men than women with an incidence ratio of 3.8:1, and men have a lower overall 5-year survival (4.5%) compared to women (13.4%) (2).…”

Mesotelioma pleurico maligno: revisione ed analisi degli studi clinici presentati all’ASCO 2015

“…Il mesotelioma maligno è una patologia tumorale rara che origina dalla superficie mesoteliale della cavità pleurica, più raramente peritoneale, pericardica e della tunica vaginale del testicolo (Price et al, 2009, Røe et al, 2015. La prognosi è severa con una sopravvivenza media tra i 4 ed i 13 mesi per i pazienti non trattati e tra i 6 ed i 18 mesi per i pazienti trattati (Ong et al, 1996, Merritt et al, 2006, Milano et al, 2010.…”