Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran

Mousavizadeh, Ali; Dastoorpoor, Maryam; Naimi, Ebrahim; Dohrabpour, K.

doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2017.10.003

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Based on the results of this study, 67% of MS patients were female. This finding is consistent with those reported in previous studies according to which the female patients outnumber the male patients by 3 to 4 times (Mousavizadeh et al, 2018;Sedaghat, Jessri, Behrooz, Mirghotbi, & Rashidkhani, 2016). The higher rate of MS among women may be related to their physiological features such as sex hormones and stress.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Like similar studies, the mean age of participants in this research was 29.9 years (Mousavizadeh et al, 2018). This may be due to a variety of adolescence-related factors, such as education, university entrance exam, occupation, or marriage, which are major determinants of one's future life and failure in any of these areas could be a source of stress.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…ultiple Sclerosis (MS) is one of the prevalent diseases of the 21 st century. It affects all aspects of an individual's health, including physical, mental, and social aspects (Mousavizadeh, Dastoorpoor, Naimi, & Dohrabpour, 2018). The major physical problems of MS patients that should be managed are pain, weakness and fatigue, visual impairment, muscle spasm, urinary and stool incontinence (While, Ulman, & Forbes, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health Promoting Self-care Behaviors in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis in the Southeast of Iran: Developing a Model for Practice

Momenabadi

Kaveh

Nakhaee

et al. 2020

BCN

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Introduction: Promoting self-care practice, as a critical strategy for enhancing the quality of life in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a challenging issue. This study aimed to propose a model of health-promoting self-care behaviors in MS patients. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 200 patients with MS, who had referred to the Hospital for Special Diseases in Kerman City, Iran, were chosen. The main data collection instruments were the multiple sclerosis knowledge questionnaire, the Rosenberg self-esteem scale, multiple sclerosis self-efficacy scale, questionnaire of perceived barriers and benefits of self-care behaviors, social support, the health promotion lifestyle profile II, and resilience and sense of coherence scale. Data analysis was conducted in SPSS V. 22 and AMOS18 software. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was also used for further analysis of data Results: The model explained 82% of variance in Health-Promoting self-care Behavior (HPB). The results of the final model obtained from the SEM showed that self-efficacy (β=0.53, SE=0.04, P= 0.007), self-esteem (β=0.39, SE=0.04, P=0.005), social support (β=0.36, SE=0.04, P=0.009), sense of coherence (β=0.34, SE=0.07, P=0.006), resilience (β=0.33, SE=0.07, P=0.018), and perceived benefits (β=0.25, SE=0.05, P=0.009) had a positive and significant relationship with HPB. Conclusion: The self-care empowerment model in patients with MS presented in this study can be used as a framework for designing health promotion interventions to improve the quality of life of patients with MS.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 51%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health Promoting Self-care Behaviors in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis in the Southeast of Iran: Developing a Model for Practice

Momenabadi

Kaveh

Nakhaee

et al. 2020

BCN

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“…The Bayesian model forecasted the MS prevalence rate for the next ten years and demonstrated an increasing trend. The increasing trend and forecasting have been reported by the study of Mousavizadeh et al in which an increasing development of MS incidence was observed up to 2024 [ 41 ]. In addition to the ethnic, genetic and environmental factors, another potential reason for the increase in future might be related to the fact that the social awareness and information about the disease have been promoted during the recent years and individuals with the primary and mild symptoms might refer to physicians for early diagnosis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…In addition to the ethnic, genetic and environmental factors, another potential reason for the increase in future might be related to the fact that the social awareness and information about the disease have been promoted during the recent years and individuals with the primary and mild symptoms might refer to physicians for early diagnosis. The MS cases are usually introduced as certain patients who are under an adequate and perfect insurance coverage in Iran and this leads to more recognition of new cases [ 41 ]. Tehran has been dealing with drought, increase in average annual temperature, dust, and air pollution during the recent decades and the condition is prone to get worse [ 42 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple sclerosis projection in Tehran, Iran using Bayesian structural time series

et al. 2021

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Background The prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has been increasing worldwide and the highest prevalence ratio among Asian countries was reported in Iran. This study aims to estimate the increase in MS occurrence during more than three decades in Tehran and forecast the future condition of the disease using time series approaches for the next ten years. Methods The cross-sectional study was conducted from 1999 to 2019 based on records of MS cases from Iranian MS Society (IMSS) registry system. The prevalence was estimated using population data presented by the Statistical Centre of Iran. Through Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model, we want to predict the prevalence of familial and sporadic MS in the next ten years. . Results Among 22,421 cases with MS, 16,831 (75.1 %) were female and 5589 (24.9 %) were male. Female to male ratio was 3.0:1 and the number of familial MS cases were 2982 (13.3 %) of subjects. Female gender was less responsible for higher rate of MS in familial definition (beta = 0.020) in comparison to sporadic cases (beta = 0.034). Forecasting by BSTS revealed an increase in MS prevalence for the next ten years so that the prevalence rate for total, familial and sporadic MS respectively begins with 189.50 (183.94-195.14), 25.69 (24.97–26.45) and 163.74(159.06-168.57) in 2020 and ends with 220.84 (171.48-266.92), 30.79 (24.16–37.15), and 189.33(146.97-230.19) in 2029. Conclusions According to the findings, MS prevalence increased during three decades and it will increase over the next ten years. Tehran province is one of the regions with highest MS prevalence in Asia. The results of present study indicated that females are at higher risk for MS than males in both sporadic and familial MS.

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Multiple Sclerosis

Pitts

Dyckman

2021

Burger's Medicinal Chemistry and Drug Discovery

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Several new medicines have been approved or entered development for the treatment of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in the past few years. The sphingosine‐1‐phosphate (S1P) modulator fingolimod was the first FDA approved oral disease modifying therapy for MS, and it has inspired a number of additional agents directed at this clinically validated target. Fumarates (e.g. dimethyl fumarate), dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibitors (e.g. teriflunomide) and other agents which decrease lymphocyte proliferation (e.g. cladribine) represent additional clinically validated therapeutic approaches. While the mechanisms of action for these new agents may not be fully defined, they have demonstrated a good degree of efficacy in the treatment of relapsing forms of MS. It is of interest to note that biologic agents which target CD20 on B cells have also shown significant efficacy in the treatment of MS. This, in turn, has spurred MS clinical trials with Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) inhibitors, which also act on B cell pathways. The introduction of each of these newer agents still requires careful consideration of the risk–benefit for individual patients, but has also set a higher bar in the treatment of MS for subsequent agents, as evidenced by the discontinuation of several agents in late stage clinical trials. This higher bar has also pushed some historic agents to second or third line agents. This speaks to an overall advancement in the treatment of MS, and provides hope for further advances in therapeutic options.

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Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran

Cited by 25 publications

References 23 publications

Health Promoting Self-care Behaviors in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis in the Southeast of Iran: Developing a Model for Practice

Health Promoting Self-care Behaviors in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis in the Southeast of Iran: Developing a Model for Practice

Multiple sclerosis projection in Tehran, Iran using Bayesian structural time series

Multiple Sclerosis

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