Time to Say Goodbye: A Duration Analysis of the Determinants of Coach Dismissals and Quits in Major League Soccer

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of voluntary and involuntary head coach turnovers using a large dataset of some 6,500 coach-game observations from Major League Soccer over 2004–2019. The duration analysis results show that team performance related to expected playoff qualification and performance expectations matter for both types of separations. Moreover, the findings reveal that coach reputation decreases dismissal probabilities, while coach age increases quit rates. The results of this study will be of particular interest to Major League Soccer team owners and managers as well as for business management outside the sports industry.

Appointed on responsibility, sacked on accountability: Understanding involuntary termination in football management. What can we learn from coaching studies

“…They identify a broader range of reasons for being 'sacked', including on-field performance, relationship between manager and the owner/Board/CEO, impact of a new owner's wishes about personnel, and intensity of media speculation. There is some evidence that reputation, experience and prior success may reduce the likelihood of dismissal (Bryson et al, 2021a;Desai, 2022;Semmelroth, 2022).…”

A culture of constraints: How head coach turnovers affect the backroom staff and player development in professional football

“…17 Driven by superficial decisions at the organizational level, coaching replacements in the Brasileirão are much higher in comparison to similar leagues from Europe, South, and North America, posing particular challenges to professional coaches who operate in Brazil. 16,24,25 To illustrate their reality, Figure 2 depicts the average coaching tenure for each Brasileirão season in the last decade.…”

“…23 Overall, most of the literature has examined coaching turnovers through measures of game output (e.g., points, goals) and league ranking (e.g., winning percentage, ranked position) in a stream of statistical studies. 18,24,25 However, it is paramount to emphasize that even if players and teams can be analyzed with individual metrics that represent successful indicators, sport performance outcomes are predominantly relative to what happens around the team and its opposition. 6,7 Behind the speculative mentality guiding football coaching turnovers, it is possible to acknowledge how the organizational level intentionally expects a direct effect (e.g., winning results) whenever a decision is taken to replace the head coach.…”

“…23 Overall, most of the literature has examined coaching turnovers through measures of game output (e.g., points, goals) and league ranking (e.g., winning percentage, ranked position) in a stream of statistical studies. 18,24,25 However, it is paramount to emphasize that even if players and teams can be analyzed with individual metrics that represent successful indicators, sport performance outcomes are predominantly relative to what happens around the team and its opposition. 6,7…”

Factores que determinan la consecución del rendimiento en el fútbol de élite: Orientación cualitativa con jugadores y jugadoras profesionales (Factors that determine the achievement of performance in elite football: Qualitative orientation with professional players)

“…En el caso de la inestabilidad en el puesto de entrenador, investigaciones anteriores han demostrado que en los últimos años existe un número mayor de despidos (Semmelroth, 2022), sobre todo después de la mitad de la temporada (Tozetto et al, 2019). Además, en aquellos clubes que se produjo la suspensión del entrenador principal del equipo, posteriormtente no aumentaron el rendimiento grupal (Van Ours & Van Tuijl, 2016).…”