Time Series Stochastic Properties Of Growth Miracles And Growth Disasters

Abstract

Preliminary findings of this research suggest significant stochastic properties differences between growth miracles and growth disasters. Miracles real GDP per capita exhibit at least one unit root whereas disasters is either stationary or has a negative unit root. Average growth rates appear to be significantly different. Average population growth rate is stationary for disasters, for miracles the existence of a negative unit root cannot be rejected. Consumption for miracles is either stationary or tends to decline, for disasters is stationary or tends to increase. Investment average and volatility are apparently significantly greater for miracles. Government expenditures for disasters are non stationary, for miracles are stationary with an incipient tendency to decline. Moreover, average government expenditures apparently are greater and more volatile for disasters. Finally, openness is stationary for disasters and for miracles it has at least one unit root.