Time Series Modelling of Epidemics: Leading Indicators, Control Groups and Policy Assessment

Harvey, Andrew

doi:10.1017/nie.2021.21

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…An alternative strategy to improve case forecasts would be to identify appropriate leading indicators. These could, for instance, be trajectories in other countries 42 or additional data streams e.g., mobility, insurance claims, or web searches. However, the benefits of such data for short-term forecasting thus far have been found to be modest 43 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. Methods We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. Results We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Conclusions Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An alternative strategy to improve case forecasts would be to identify appropriate leading indicators. These could for instance be trajectories in other countries 42 or additional data streams on e.g., mobility, insurance claims or web searches. However, the benefits of such data for short-term forecasting thus far have been found to be modest.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Bracher

Wolffram

Deuschel

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We report on the second and final part of a pre-registered forecasting study on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Germany and Poland. Fifteen independent research teams provided forecasts at lead times of one through four weeks from January through mid-April 2021. Compared to the first part (October–December 2020), the number of participating teams increased, and a number of teams started providing subnational-level forecasts. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in the first part of our study. In both countries, case counts declined initially, before rebounding due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 variant. Deaths declined through most of the study period in Germany while in Poland they increased after a prolonged plateau. Many, though not all, models outperformed a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead, with ensemble methods showing very good relative performance. Major trend changes in reported cases, however, remained challenging to predict.

show abstract

Pandemic modeling with the game of life

Faux,

Thavaraja,

Croucher

2023

American Journal of Physics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The generalized semi-classical game of life (gSCGOL) is a cellular automaton in which qubits evolve through repeated applications of birth, death, and survival operators. gSCGOL is used to model human–virus interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic by using cell “liveness” to be equivalent to the human population that is vulnerable to the disease. A match to the United Kingdom (UK) daily 7-day average COVID-19 deaths was achieved by daily changes to a parameter V representing the vulnerability of the population to the virus. The model predicts that the first COVID-19 virus entered the UK on December 22, 2019 with an uncertainty of ±1 days. The changes in the vulnerability V elucidate the human response to the unfolding pandemic during 2020, quantifying the impact of the lockdown, the relaxation of restrictions, and the opening and closing of schools. The model predicts that starting the first UK national lockdown one week earlier would have led to 40% fewer COVID-19-related deaths, equivalent to 17 000 lives.

show abstract

Time Series Modelling of Epidemics: Leading Indicators, Control Groups and Policy Assessment

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Pandemic modeling with the game of life

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About