Time Series Modeling of Monetary Value from Kenya’s Horticultural Export Produce

Abstract

Kenya’s horticulture sector is one of the key contributors to the country’s national income. In this paper, we apply Box-Jenkins SARIMA time series modeling approach to develop a time series model that best describes the income to Kenya’s economy from the export of horticulture produce. In the process of analysis, we considered monthly data from August 1998 to March 2023. It was found that, SARIMA(3; 1; 4)(0; 1; 0)12 is the suitable model that describes the income from the export of Kenya’s horticulture produce.