Time Series Modeling of Air Pollution and Its Association with Season and Climate Variables in Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

Air pollution depends on seasons, wind speed, temperature, wind direction and air pressure. The effect of different seasons on air pollution is not fully addressed in the reported works. The current study investigated the impact of season on air pollutants including SO2, PM10, NO, NOX, and O3 using NARX method. In the applied methodology, a feature selection was used with each pollutant to find the most important season(s). Afterward, six models are designed based on the feature selection to show the impact of seasons in finding the concentration of pollutants. A case study is conducted on Esenyurt which is one of the most populated and industrialized places in Istanbul to validate the proposed framework. The performance of using all of the designed models with different pollutants showed that using season effect led to improving the performance of predictor and generating high R2 and low error functions.