Time Series Compared Across the Land-Sea Gradient

Warner, Susan; Limburg, Karin E.; Ariño, Arturo H.; Dodd, Mike; Dushoff, Jonathan; Στεργίου, Κωνσταντίνος Ι.; Potts, Jacqueline M.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4615-1769-6_14

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In ecology, however, the process error, often denoted environmental stochasticity or noise, is believed to deviate from those assumptions, e.g. be autocorrelated and dominated by low-frequency variation (Steele 1985;Warner et al 1995;Halley 1996), offering a possible explanation for the reddened spectra that characterize many ecological time-series (Lawton 1988;Pimm & Redfearn 1988).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology

Jonzén

Lundberg

Ranta

et al. 2002

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

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The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a real problem may mislead ecologists and result in erroneous conclusions about the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous factors in natural ecosystems. The lack of correct model identification may also have far-reaching consequences for population management and conservation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology

Jonzén

Lundberg

Ranta

et al. 2002

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

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“…Earlier work examining the e¡ect of environmental noise on populations used white noise as a model of environmental variation (May 1973;Lande 1993), but we now know that most environmental noise contains long-term £uctuations (Mandelbrot & Wallis 1969;Steele 1985;Warner et al 1995). In particular, it has been suggested that the variability of a wide range of natural phenomena is well described by 1/f b -type noises (Halley 1996), where variance at each frequency scales according to a power law.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Black noise and population persistence

Cuddington

Yodzis

1999

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

117

127

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Biological populations are susceptible to random variation in environmental in£uences such as temperature and moisture. This variability (or noise) can determine population size and, ultimately, cause extinctions. Extinction risk depends on noise colour or the amount of short-and long-term variation. Most environmental noise is reddened: the variation is dominated by long-term £uctuations. Recent modelling has shown that moderately reddened noise a¡ects populations di¡erently from the white noise used in earlier studies. However, some geophysical phenomena, such as temperature and river height, can have deeply reddened`brown' or even`black' spectra. We ¢nd that, compared to environments characterized by red noise, very long population persistence times are more likely for black noise. Unlike previous work incorporating a simple autoregressive model of reddened noise, our model suggests that the large variation associated with persistence in a red-noise environment limits our ability to predict the fate of particular populations subject to this noise colour. Thus, we identify the colour of noise experienced by a populationöred or blacköas a crucial factor in any attempt to manage or conserve that population.

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Time Series Compared Across the Land-Sea Gradient

Cited by 2 publications

References 54 publications

The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology

The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology

Black noise and population persistence

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