Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine C.; Nafo-Traoré, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0106359

Cited by 82 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Aregawi et al shows that malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopia substantially declined after the introduction of ACT and ITNs [4]. However, the malaria control strategy also faces several challenges to achieve WHO’s GTS targets to reduce malaria mortality and incidence rates by at least 90% by 2030 [9].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Deribew

Dejene

Kebede

et al. 2017

Malar J

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BackgroundIn Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years.MethodsGBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling.ResultsThe number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4–4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230–797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3–61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8–2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76–4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12–0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period.ConclusionsEthiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Deribew

Dejene

Kebede

et al. 2017

Malar J

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“…The contribution of development partners to support high-effect child survival interventions such as immunization and malaria control program could also contribute significantly to reduction of under-5 mortality. For instance, malaria incident cases and deaths in Ethiopia substantially declined after the introduction of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and insecticide-treated nets (ITN) [26]. Improved coverage of immunization has also contributed to the dramatic decline in the measles mortality rate (>75%) over the last 23 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Deribew

Tessema

Deribe

et al. 2016

Popul Health Metrics

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BackgroundEthiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990–2013.MethodsWe used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1–4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013.Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths (n = 97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap.ConclusionsLRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors.

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“…In Ethiopia, Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax are the dominant species, with P. falciparum accounting for 60% of malaria cases reported in the country [1, 4, 7, 10]. Malaria transmission in the region is seasonal due to climatic and altitude factors [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Ethiopia, the burden of malaria is declining significantly, which could be the result of improved coverage of high impact interventions, such as prompt treatment of cases, prevention and control of malaria among pregnant women using intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), use vector control methods including ITNs, and IRS [10, 11]. However, although there is a significant decline in disease burden, the overall trend of malaria prevalence is not studied or well-documented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Eight-year trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Kombolcha, South Wollo, north-central Ethiopia: a retrospective study

2018

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BackgroundMalaria is one of the most serious public health problems in the world, and is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Over the past years, the disease has been consistently reported as the first leading cause of outpatient visits, hospitalization and death in health facilities across the country. This study aimed to assess malaria prevalence trend in the Kombolcha Health Centre.MethodsA retrospective study was carried out in the Kombolcha Health Centre, north-central Ethiopia. Malaria cases reported from 2009 to 2016 were carefully reviewed from the laboratory record books. Interventions that had been taken in each year were collected from the district health bureau and head of Kombolcha Health Centre using checklists.ResultsA total of 27,492 blood films were examined from malaria-suspected patients in the Kombolcha Health Centre from 2009 to 2016. Malaria was confirmed and reported in 2066 (7.52%) of the examined blood films with 258 mean annual cases of. Minimum and maximum cases were reported in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax accounted 60.2% and 35.5% of the cases, respectively. Male patients were more affected (n = 1407; 68.1%) than female ones (n = 659; 31.89%). The highest malaria prevalence (n = 1440; 69.69%) was seen in the 15–45 years age group, followed by those 5–14 years old (n = 303; 14.67%), and finally patients under five years old (n = 217; 10.5%). Malaria cases were at a peak in spring and reduced in the winter season.ConclusionAlthough the current malaria control strategies are effective in decreasing the morbidity and mortality, malaria is still among major public health problems in Ethiopia. Plasmodium falciparum is the dominant species in the study area. However, in recent years P. vivax cases are increasing, indicating that attention should also be given to this species. The efficacy of chloroquine for P. vivax should be evaluated in the study area. Control activities should be continued and scale up.

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Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

Cited by 82 publications

References 16 publications

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Eight-year trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Kombolcha, South Wollo, north-central Ethiopia: a retrospective study

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