Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China

Lin, Hualiang; Yang, Liuqing; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Tong; Hossain, Sarah; Ho, Suzanne C.; Tian, Linwei

doi:10.1007/s00038-011-0236-x

Cited by 38 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Especially given that global temperature has been generally warming, more attention has been paid to the relationship of infectious diseases with meteorological factors. Some studies were found to report the relationship between them (Lin et al 2012;Soebiyanto et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

et al. 2016

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Studies on scarlet fever with meteorological factors included were few. We aimed to illustrate meteorological factors' effects on monthly incidence of scarlet fever. Cases of scarlet fever were collected from the report of legal infectious disease in Hefei City from 1985 to 2006; the meteorological data were obtained from the weather bureau of Hefei City. Monthly incidence and corresponding meteorological data in these 22 years were used to develop the model. The model of auto regressive integrated moving average with covariates was used in statistical analyses. There was a highest peak from March to June and a small peak from November to January. The incidence of scarlet fever ranges from 0 to 0.71502 (per 10 population). SARIMAX (1,0,0)(1,0,0) model was fitted with monthly incidence and meteorological data optimally. It was shown that relative humidity (β = -0.002, p = 0.020), mean temperature (β = 0.006, p = 0.004), and 1 month lag minimum temperature (β = -0.007, p < 0.001) had effect on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei. Besides, the incidence in a previous month (AR(β) = 0.469, p < 0.001) and in 12 months before (SAR(β) = 0.255, p < 0.001) was positively associated with the incidence. This study shows that scarlet fever incidence was negatively associated with monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity while was positively associated with mean temperature in Hefei City, China. Besides, the ARIMA model could be useful not only for prediction but also for the analysis of multiple correlations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

et al. 2016

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“…In [11], it was demonstrated that at the provincial level, the risk of JE seemed to be governed by high proportions of rice-planting area, rural population and the extent of pig rearing. The authors of [13,14,15] studied the impact of the climate variability on the transmission of JE. These studies give evidence on the association between JE cases and the contextual risk factors, including agricultural and climatic factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Japanese Encephalitis Risk and Contextual Risk Factors in Southwest China: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis

Zhao

Cao

Feng

et al. 2014

IJERPH

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It is valuable to study the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and its association with the contextual risk factors in southwest China, which is the most endemic area in China. Using data from 2004 to 2009, we applied GISmapping and spatial autocorrelation analysis to analyze reported incidence data of JE in 438 counties in southwest China, finding that JE cases were not randomly distributed, and a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model identified the east part of southwest China as a high risk area. Meanwhile, the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model in 2006 demonstrated a statistically significant association between JE and the agricultural and climatic variables, including the proportion of rural population, the pig-to-human ratio, the monthly precipitation and the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures. Particular emphasis was placed on the time-lagged effect for climatic factors. The regression method and the Spearman correlation analysis both identified a two-month lag for the precipitation, while the regression method found a one-month lag for temperature. The results show that the high risk area in the east part of southwest China may be connected to the agricultural and climatic factors. The routine surveillance and the allocation of health resources should be given more attention in this area. Moreover, the meteorological variables might be considered as possible predictors of JE in southwest China.

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“…A detailed summary of the included studies is presented in (TABLE 1) Additional papers identified through other sources (n = 25) Vaccination [46] Monthly relative humidity Spatial lag term, The percentage of irrigated land, the percentage of grassland cover, pigto-human ratio [50] Mean monthly total precipitation (April)…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seven studies reported a positive association between temperature and JE incidence [44][45][46][47][48][49][50], and seven studies reported a positive association between precipitation and JE incidence [44,[46][47][48][49][50][51]. Three studies [45,46,48] suggested a positive association between relative humidity and JE incidence. Southern Oscillation Index (lag-6 months) was investigated by only one study, where a positive association with JE cases was reported [44].…”

Section: Hepatitis Bmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Despite this, only three studies [44,46,47] included vaccination as a risk factor. Other non-climatic factors reported in these studies included the presence of amplifying/ reservoir hosts around and lower part of the dwelling houses, presence of paddy fields around dwellings [45], pig density [47], percentage of irrigated land [50], the percentage of grassland cover [50] and pig-to-man ratio [50], all except for the last two factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of JE.…”

Section: Hepatitis Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system

Guo¹,

Naish

Tong

2014

Expert Review of Vaccines

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Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

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Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China

Abstract: Weather variables might be treated as possible predictors of Japanese encephalitis incidence for regions with similar geographic, weather, and socio-economic conditions to Linyi, China.

Cited by 38 publications

References 44 publications

Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

Japanese Encephalitis Risk and Contextual Risk Factors in Southwest China: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system

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