Time-Rescaling regression method for exponential decay time series predictions

Abstract

The exponential law has been discovered in various systems around the world. In this study, we introduce two existing and one proposed analytical method for exponential decay time-series predictions. The proposed method is given by a linear regression that is based on rescaling the time axis in terms of exponential decay laws. We confirm that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy than existing methods by performance evaluation using random numbers and verification using actual data. The proposed method can be used for analyzing real data modeled with exponential functions, which are ubiquitous in the world.

Average booking curves draw exponential functions

“…One of the advantages of the application is that it is industrially unlimited. Some forecasting or dynamic pricing applications that can be applied in various perishable asset industries have already been proposed 21 , 45 .…”

“…Therefore, the use of booking curves for forecasting in RM has been widely studied by many researchers and professionals in the perishable assets industries. This has led to the development of several advanced and highly accurate forecasting models 4 , 9 – 11 , 14 , 16 – 21 , including exponential smoothing 22 – 25 , stochastic process models 3 , 26 , generalized linear mixed models 27 , and methods utilizing neural nets that incorporate seasonal and day-of-week trends into their parameters 28 , 29 .…”