Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0<sub>2</sub>in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Knutson, Thomas R.; Manabe, Syukuro

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2181:tmrott>2.0.co;2

Cited by 414 publications

(423 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Figure 3d shows the 27-model MME difference in the 200 hPa velocity potential between the current and future climatology. The divergent wind centered in the southern hemisphere over the Maritime Continent is projected to decrease, which is consistent with weakening of the tropical circulation due to global warming 1 (Knutson and Manabe 1995;Sugi et al 2002;Vecchi and Soden 2007). The cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies in the upper (lower) troposphere are located to the northwest and southwest of the decreased divergence (Figs.…”

Section: Future Projectionssupporting

confidence: 65%

“…The intensification was associated with decreased upper tropospheric divergence in the equatorial Western Pacific and simultaneous weakening of the baroclinic Matsuno-Gill response in the lowlatitude region (Matsuno 1966;Gill 1980). Since weakening of the divergence is projected to weaken even in winter owing to the thermodynamic balance in the equatorial region (Knutson and Manabe 1995;Sugi et al 2002), a similar mechanism would affect the jet stream in winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Harada

Hirahara

Hagiya

et al. 2013

SOLA

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The winter response of the Asian jet stream to global warming is investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset under the RCP4.5 scenario. We first evaluate model performances in reproducing the current climatology in the upper troposphere and select the best 27 models. A multi-model ensemble projection by the selected models indicates that the jet stream over the Indochina peninsula and the South China Sea is intensified on its equatorial side in the late 21st century, while the jet stream shifts poleward over the Eurasian continent and the North Pacific. The strengthening of the jet stream on the south side is associated with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomalies in the upper (lower) troposphere over the southern part of China and decreased upper tropospheric divergence over the Maritime Continent. The strength of the upper tropospheric divergence and the amplitude of the anticylonic eddy streamfunction are strongly correlated. These findings suggest that future changes in the jet stream are related to the weakening of a Matsuno-Gill response to tropical heating.(Citation: Harada, M., S. Hirahara, S. Hagiya, H. Murai, Y. Oikawa, and S. Maeda, 2013: Intensification of the south side of the Asian jet stream during the northern winter in CMIP5 models. SOLA, 9, 94−97,

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Section: Future Projectionssupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Harada

Hirahara

Hagiya

et al. 2013

SOLA

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“…Since H ADV depends on both the amount of water vapor (Q) and the convergence of the wind which transports the water vapor (referred to as the effect of CON V ), these two effects need to be separated in order to further understand the dynamics. For example, Knutson and Manabe (1995) compared the two effects when they analyzed the change in the water cycle under the increased atmospheric CO 2 climate. Partly based on the previous studies, the effect of CON V can be separated as follows…”

Section: Water Budget Analysis During a Boreal Summermentioning

confidence: 99%

The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

Yanase

Abe‐Ouchi

2007

Clim. Past

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Abstract. The surface conditions and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific during the last glacial maximum have been investigated using outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in the PMIP2 database. During the boreal summer, the weakening of the high pressure system over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are found in most models. The latter can be attributed to reduced moisture transport. During the boreal winter, an intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere are found in most models.Some of the results in the present study seem to be consistent with the paleoclimatic reconstructions in the previous studies: pollen and lake-status records suggest dry climate over East Asia during the last glacial maximum, and part of the dust record has a signal that the East Asian winter monsoon was more strong and the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere was further south during the last glacial maximum than at the present day. This result confirms that a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is a promising tool to understand not only the global climate but also the regional climate in the past.

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“…Recent and future changes in the tropical upper tropospheric temperature (T TUT ) have received particular attention [e.g., Santer et al, 2005;Allen and Sherwood, 2008;Thorne et al, 2011;O'Gorman and Singh, 2013;Flannaghan et al, 2014] because they play important roles regarding climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity [e.g., Colman, 2001;Soden and Held, 2006;Vial et al, 2013], atmospheric circulation [e.g., Knutson and Manabe, 1995;Ueda et al, 2006;Vecchi and Soden, 2007], and tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate [e.g., Shen et al, 2000;Knutson and Tuleya, 2004;Emanuel et al, 2013;Vecchi et al, 2013].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

Kamae

Shiogama

Ishii³

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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Observed upper tropospheric temperature over the tropics (TTUT) shows a slowdown in warming rate during 1997–2011 despite the continuous warming projected by coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This observation‐model discord is an underlying issue regarding the reliability of future climate projections based on AOGCMs. To investigate the slowdown, we conducted ensemble historical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea surface temperature both with and without anthropogenic influences. The historical AGCM run reproduced a muted TTUT change over the central Pacific (CP) found in multiple observations, while the multi‐AOGCM mean did not. Recent tropical Pacific cooling, which is considered natural variability, contributes to the muted trend over the CP and the resultant slowdown of TTUT increase. The results of this study suggest that difficulties in simulating the recent “upper tropospheric warming hiatus” do not indicate low reliability of AOGCM‐based future climate projections.

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Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0₂in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Cited by 414 publications

References 29 publications

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

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Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C02in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

Cited by 414 publications

References 29 publications

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

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Product

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Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0₂in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model