Through space and time: Predicting numbers of an eruptive pine tree pest and its predator under changing climate conditions

Munro, Holly L.; Montes, Cristián R.; Kinane, Stephen M.; Gandhi, Kamal J. K.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118770

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The National Forests (NF) in Mississippi experienced a brief outbreak in 2012 on the BNF and to a greater degree on the Homochitto NF [12], with less managed stands experiencing the majority of the infestations [6]. The same two forests experienced a longerduration and more severe outbreak from 2015-2019; both events align with predicted suitability for SPB activity [3]. The U.S. Forest Service reported nearly 700 SPB spots in the year 2016 alone, 361 in the Homochitto NF and 317 in the BNF (see https://www.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The risk of SPB activities rising to outbreak levels in both Mississippi and throughout the southeast looks to increase through 2100 based on temperature and precipitation modelling [3]. High-resolution imagery and manual classification will provide useful information if that eventuality occurs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The pine-type forests of the southern United States South are susceptible to a variety of non-harvest disturbances that can significantly reduce standing timber inventories [1][2][3]. Some disturbances, such as fire and severe weather, are short-lived, discrete events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Tracking the Extent and Impacts of a Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) Outbreak in the Bienville National Forest

Crosby

McConnell

Holderieath

et al. 2022

Forests

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The Bienville National Forest (BNF) in central Mississippi experienced an outbreak of southern pine beetle (SPB) beginning in 2015 and continuing through 2019. To assess the extent of the outbreak and subsequent treatments of impacted areas, high-resolution imagery was obtained from various sources and interpreted to determine the feasibility of this imagery for detecting SPB spots and tracking their spread and treatments. A negative binomial regression model then described the relationship between spot detection, year, and status (i.e., infestation/treatment) and then incidence rate ratios were calculated. The peak active infestation acreage occurred in 2017 with treatment and mitigation measures peaking in 2018. In total, over 4450 hectares (ha) were treated through 2019 in the BNF. Overall, it is possible to discern small areas of active SPB infestation and treatments. If used as a monitoring method, consistently available high-resolution imagery (e.g., from a satellite) provides an effective means of detecting, evaluating, and tracking infestations and related treatments.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tracking the Extent and Impacts of a Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) Outbreak in the Bienville National Forest

Crosby

McConnell

Holderieath

et al. 2022

Forests

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“…Another merit of GAMs is their flexibility and robustness [44], as GAMs are more relaxed toward the basic assumptions required in developing linear or nonlinear models (i.e., independent, normality, and equal variance). Therefore, GAMs have been used extensively in forestry studies like taper modeling [45], insect pests [46], increment of basal area [47], taper functions [41,48], and tree biomass [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Alternative Method for Estimation of Stand-Level Biomass for Three Conifer Species in Northeast China

Xin

Shahzad²,

Mahardika

et al. 2023

Forests

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Accurate large-scale biomass prediction is crucial for assessing forest carbon storage and dynamics. It can also inform sustainable forest management practices and climate change mitigation efforts. However, stand-level biomass models are still scarce worldwide. Our study aims to introduce the generalized additive model (GAM) as a convenient and efficient approach for forest biomass estimation. Data from 311 sample plots of three conifer species in northeastern China were used to evaluate the performance of the GAM model and compare it with traditional nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR) models in predicting stand biomass, including total, aboveground, and component biomass. The results indicated that the goodness of fit of GAM was better than that of NSUR in two model systems. In the majority of cases, the scatter plots and prediction performance revealed that the stand total and component biomass models utilizing GAM outperformed those based on NSUR. Disregarding heteroscedasticity and requiring fewer statistical assumptions provide additional support for the replacement of NSUR-based models with GAM-based models. This study implies that the GAM approach has greater potential for developing a system of stand biomass models.

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“…In this regard, generalized additive models (GAMs) address non‐linearity of data using smooth functions for predictor variables (Pedersen et al, 2019). GAMs are gaining interest in insect ecology since variation in the number of flying adults can be modelled considering environmental variables (Munro et al, 2021; Pawson et al, 2020). In this study, we hypothesized that summer flight phenology of P. cylindrus could vary among locations and be related to microclimatic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microclimatic conditions drive summer flight phenology of Platypus cylindrus in managed cork oak stands

Muñoz‐Adalia

Ahmed

Colinas

2022

J Applied Entomology

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The oak pinhole borer, Platypus cylindrus F., mainly colonizes oaks (Quercus sp.), and it is considered among the most serious pests of cork oak (Quercus suber L.). Despite being traditionally considered as a secondary pest in thermophilic oak woodlands, outbreaks seem to be more frequent throughout the Mediterranean Basin thus becoming a growing forest health concern. In the Iberian Peninsula, this insect mainly attacks cork oaks (Q. suber) causing intense stress to mature trees specially after cork harvesting season. In this study, we investigated the summer flight phenology of P. cylindrus in six stands located in north‐eastern Spain. We recorded the number of insects trapped in pheromone‐baited traps from late April to early September of 2021, and computed sex ratio, average date of flight and season flight curve in each plot. We fitted a GAM model to evaluate how population dynamics are driven by date and climatic factors. A total of 1795 insects were collected during the sampling period. Population peaks occurred from late May to mid‐August. The fitted GAM predicted changes in the number of captures throughout the summer varying with microclimatic conditions. In addition, diversity of trapped non‐target Curculionidae resulted moderate with low evenness including either ambrosia or bark beetles. This study represents the first attempt at modelling P. cylindrus flight, thus providing insights into the association between climate, pests and forestry.

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Through space and time: Predicting numbers of an eruptive pine tree pest and its predator under changing climate conditions

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Tracking the Extent and Impacts of a Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) Outbreak in the Bienville National Forest

Tracking the Extent and Impacts of a Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) Outbreak in the Bienville National Forest

An Alternative Method for Estimation of Stand-Level Biomass for Three Conifer Species in Northeast China

Microclimatic conditions drive summer flight phenology of Platypus cylindrus in managed cork oak stands

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