Through an Ice Sheet, Darkly

Piecuch, C. G.; Das, Sarah B.

doi:10.1029/2022ef003310

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…(2021) projections under SSP5‐8.5 using the methods here gave a maximum Antarctic sea‐level contribution of over 25m. Such extreme predictions would require far more physical justification than a simple extrapolation can provide, and could be actively unhelpful given that multi‐century high emissions might reasonably be considered impossible, given current knowledge and technologies (J. Bamber et al., 2022; Piecuch & Das, 2022; van de Wal et al., 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application

Turner,

Malagon Santos,

Edwards

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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We produce projections of global mean sea‐level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea‐level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1‐2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2‐4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi‐centennial projections combined into multi‐study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock‐ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea‐level rise.

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