Three-stage method of forecasting energy consumption levels in the economy with regard for regional energy saving potentials

Abstract

We perfected the known two-stage method of forecasting energy consumption levels by applying its methodical approaches for three hierarchical levels of the structure of Ukrainian economy: country, regions, types of economic activity in regions. This approach makes it possible to determine the demand for fuel and energy resources at the regional levels of structuring the economy with regard for the specific features of their economic development. According to regional energy efficiency programs, it is possible to estimate more accurately the energy saving potentials and volumes of the replacement of scarce fuels with their cheap local types. The three-stage method is based on the refined normative method that is used at three hierarchical levels with regard for the estimated energy saving potentials from structural and technological shifts in the economy. The forecasts obtained agree with each other by Kulyk's method twice. The country-level forecast is consistent with the forecast for total regional energy consumption. For each region, the forecast of regional energy consumption is consistent with the forecast of total energy consumption at the levels of types of economic activity in the region with regard for structural and technological shifts. If the coordination of consumption levels between the types of economic activity and the region will introduce corrections to the regional energy consumption, then the coordination of levels of the country and regions is carried out at the second time. In other words, forecasting is carried out at three levels with two matches of the results of forecasting energy consumption –- between the first and second as well as second and third levels. If it is necessary to correct the forecasts of second level, reconciliation between the forecasts of first and second levels is performed again. Kulyk's vector method is used to agree on predictive decisions. We also present a method for calculating the forecasts of energy consumption at three hierarchical levels with the corresponding agreement of these forecasts. Based on the described methodology and estimated volumes of energy saving potentials at regional levels and for more significant types of economic activity in the regions, we performed a forecast of heat energy consumption for the period to 2040 , taking into account the volumes of technological energy saving in the regions. Keywords: method, demand, region, energy consumption, forecasting, type of economic activity, adjustment

Modified three-stage model for forecasting the demand for energy resources at various hierarchy levels of the economy

“…The technology-based energy saving capacity for Ukrainian economy until 2040 is estimated in [17,18] and more precisely determined in this work when forecasting volume of coal required to meet the electricity and heat generation needs.…”

“…This means that there is a need for further improvement of forecasting methods and reconciliation of forecasts. As compared with the model described in [18], the presented three-stage model allows solving of two problems: forecasting of energy consumption at two DOWN levels, which may vary depending on the task. The improved three-stage model provides the same energy efficiency indicators at different hierarchical levels -GVA's energy intensity at corresponding levels that per se already reduces the error in forecasts when using various indicators: energy intensity of GDP at TOP (national) level, GVA's energy intensity for economic activities and energy intensity GRP for the regional level -that are traditionally used by economists.…”

“…Moreover, the scenarios are used for calculating the volume of possible implementation of technological energy saving. All components in formulas ( 1)- (10), which depend on the variable t th , are calculated for tth year depending on the structure of the economy s and probable reduction in the energy intensity of GVA at given volumes of technological energy saving implementation for appropriate scenarios [17,18]. For the purpose of forecasting by regions, it is also taken into account structure of their economies within the country's economy and typical energy saving measures.…”

“…where P t r is forecasted demand for the energy resource in tth year for rth region of Ukraine. Forecasted demand for energy resources for regional economies shall be determined as follows [18]:…”

“…Long-term forecasts of energy consumption are developed for some sectors of the world economy and for individual regions of the world [7,9,[15][16][17]. The Institute of General Energy at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has proposed a comprehensive method for forecasting energy consumption based on the two-stage method [17] and its development based on the three-stage method [18].…”