Three-ocean interactions and climate variability: a review and perspective

Wang, Chunzai

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04930-x

Cited by 262 publications

(177 citation statements)

References 136 publications

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“…While we do find 8 of the 39 compound droughts in the 118-year record associated with opposite phases of two or more of these variability modes (Figs. 2 and S3), those conditions are comparatively rare 45 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…For instance, El Niño conditions are more likely to co-occur with IOD + conditions as they tend to drive warmer SSTs over the western Indian ocean through the atmospheric bridge and cooler SSTs over the eastern Indian ocean via oceanic Indonesian throughflow 45 . Similarly, cold SSTs over the tropical north Atlantic Ocean can induce warm conditions over the Pacific Ocean by influencing the Walker circulations 45 , making cold TNA conditions and El Niños more likely. Therefore, we further explore how IOD + , TNA − , and AtlNiño − modes interact with El Niño to influence drought characteristics over individual regions and consequently, compound droughts.…”

Section: Identifying Relevant Phases Of Natural Variability Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

et al. 2021

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Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Identifying Relevant Phases Of Natural Variability Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

et al. 2021

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“…The evolution of the equatorial Pacific upper‐ocean heat content provides memory to the coupled equatorial system, and is primarily responsible for the quasi‐cyclic nature of ENSO. However, stochastic atmospheric and oceanic variability within the tropical Pacific, as well as influences from the extratropical Pacific (Chiang & Vimont, 2004; Zhang et al, 2014) and from other ocean basins (Cai et al, 2019; Wang, 2019), which themselves may be stochastic in nature, result in deviations of the ENSO evolution from a regular cycle, and may contribute to event‐to‐event differences in spatial pattern, amplitude and propagation characteristics. Slow variations of the tropical background conditions may also lead to a low‐frequency modulation of ENSO characteristics (Capotondi & Sardeshmukh, 2017; Fedorov & Philander, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Earth System Model Version 2

Capotondi

Deser

Phillips

et al. 2020

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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This study presents a description of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) in a multicentury preindustrial simulation of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). The model simulates several aspects of ENSO relatively well, including dominant timescale, tropical and extratropical precursors, composite evolution of El Niño and La Niña events, and ENSO teleconnections. The good model representation of ENSO spectral characteristics is consistent with the spatial pattern of the anomalous equatorial zonal wind stress in the model, which results in the correct adjustment timescale of the equatorial thermocline according to the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigms, as also reflected in the realistic time evolution of the equatorial Warm Water Volume. PDV in the model exhibits a pattern that is very similar to the observed, with realistic tropical and South Pacific signatures which were much weaker in some of the CESM2 predecessor models. The tropical component of PDV also shows an association with ENSO decadal modulation which is similar to that found in observations. However, the ENSO amplitude is about 30% larger than observed in the preindustrial CESM2 simulation, and even larger in the historical ensemble, perhaps as a result of anthropogenic influences. In contrast to observations, the largest variability is found in the central Pacific rather than in the eastern Pacific, a discrepancy that somewhat hinders the model's ability to represent a full diversity in El Niño spatial patterns and appears to be associated with an unrealistic confinement of the precipitation anomalies to the western Pacific. Plain Language Summary The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is the latest version of the Earth System models developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. This study examines how well CESM2 simulates the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the leading mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific at interannual timescales, with a large influence on the global climate and very important societal impacts. The modeled ENSO exhibits a larger amplitude than observed, with anomalies displaced further west than in observations, but with dominant timescale, temporal evolution, precursors, and teleconnections in good agreement with observations. This study also examines the model performance in simulating climate variability at decadal timescales in the Pacific sector. The spatial pattern of Pacific Decadal Variability and the relationship between decadal variations in the tropical Pacific and decadal ENSO modulation are well simulated by CESM2.

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“…The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST anomalies may need to be given more attention when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM. It is necessary to carry out further research on the inter-basin interactions (e.g., Cai et al 2019;Wang 2019), which may be the key to understanding the recent climate variability.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting the Indian and western North Pacific summer monsoons in terms of their intensity of interannual variability and biennial relationship with ENSO

Chen

Wang

2020

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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The intensity of interannual variability (IIV) of the monsoon and monsoon-ENSO biennial relationship (MEBR) were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) during 1958-2018. Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons. When the MEBR was strong (weak), the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large (small). This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM. Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM. When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong (weak), those of the WNPSM tended to be weak (strong). During the period with a stronger (weaker) ENSO-Atlantic coupling after (before) the mid-1980s, the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM (ISM) were observed to be stronger. The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability. The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.

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Three-ocean interactions and climate variability: a review and perspective

Cited by 262 publications

References 136 publications

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Earth System Model Version 2

Contrasting the Indian and western North Pacific summer monsoons in terms of their intensity of interannual variability and biennial relationship with ENSO

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