Three‐Dimensional Modeling of Spontaneous and Triggered Slow‐Slip Events at the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, New Zealand

Shibazaki, Bunichiro; Wallace, Laura; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Hamling, I. J.; Ito, Yoshihiro; Matsuzawa, Takanori

doi:10.1029/2019jb018190

Cited by 17 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Numerical models using the empirical rate-and-state friction law can simulate the slip and stress history on the fault during earthquake cycles spanning a continuum spectrum of fast and slow slip [e.g. 25,26,27,28,29,31,32,38,49]. For example, Kaneko et al [30] showed that interseismic fault coupling pattern is highly related to the heterogeneous frictional properties on the fault, which suggests that geodetic inversions of fault locking can be used to inform the rate-state frictional parameter distributions in such earthquake sequence models and hence to quantitatively assess earthquake rupture scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Li¹,

Liu²

2022

Preprint

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Paleo-earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone inferred from offshore sediments and Japan coastal tsunami deposits approximated to M9+ and ruptured the entire margin. However, due to the lack of modern megathrust earthquake records and generally quiescence of subduction fault seismicity, the potential megathrust rupture scenario and influence of downdip limit of the seismogenic zone are still obscure. In this study we present a numerical simulation of Cascadia subduction zone earthquake sequences in the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction framework to investigate the potential influence of the geodetic fault locking on the megathrust sequences. We consider the rate-state friction stability parameter is constrained by geodetic fault locking models derived from decadal GPS records, tidal gauge, and leveling-derived uplift rate data along the Cascadia margin. We incorporate historical coseismic subsidence inferred from coastal marine sediments to validate our coseismic rupture scenarios. Earthquake rupture pattern is strongly controlled by the downdip width of the seismogenic, velocity-weakening zone, and by the earthquake nucleation zone size. In our model, along-strike heterogeneous characteristic slip distance is required to generate margin-wide ruptures that result in reasonable agreement between the synthetic and observed coastal subsidence for the A.D. 1700 Cascadia Mw∼9.0 megathrust rupture. Our results suggest geodetically inferred fault locking model can provide a useful constraint on earthquake rupture scenarios in subduction zones.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Li¹,

Liu²

2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Numerical models using the empirical rate-and-state friction law can simulate the slip and stress history on the fault during earthquake cycles spanning a continuum spectrum of fast and slow slip (e.g. [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]). For example, Kaneko et al [27] showed that interseismic fault coupling pattern is highly related to the heterogeneous frictional properties on the fault, which suggests that geodetic inversions of fault locking can be used to inform the rate-state frictional parameter distributions in such earthquake sequence models and hence to quantitatively assess earthquake rupture scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Li¹,

Liu

2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Paleo-earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone inferred from offshore sediments and Japan coastal tsunami deposits approximated to M9+ and ruptured the entire margin. However, due to the lack of modern megathrust earthquake records and general quiescence of subduction fault seismicity, the potential megathrust rupture scenario and influence of downdip limit of the seismogenic zone are still obscure. In this study, we present a numerical simulation of Cascadia subduction zone earthquake sequences in the laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction framework to investigate the potential influence of the geodetic fault locking on the megathrust sequences. We consider the rate-state friction stability parameter constrained by geodetic fault locking models derived from decadal GPS records, tidal gauge and levelling-derived uplift rate data along the Cascadia margin. We incorporate historical coseismic subsidence inferred from coastal marine sediments to validate our coseismic rupture scenarios. Earthquake rupture pattern is strongly controlled by the downdip width of the seismogenic, velocity-weakening zone and by the earthquake nucleation zone size. In our model, along-strike heterogeneous characteristic slip distance is required to generate margin-wide ruptures that result in reasonable agreement between the synthetic and observed coastal subsidence for the AD 1700 Cascadia Mw∼9.0 megathrust rupture. Our results suggest the geodetically inferred fault locking model can provide a useful constraint on earthquake rupture scenarios in subduction zones. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe’.

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“…Besides, the Kapiti SSEs sequence in New Zealand is well-recorded with a long history as well. The recurrence intervals before the 2016 M w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake are approximately 5.0 years, have been shortened to 0.5 years after the Kaikōura earthquake (Shibazaki et al 2019;Wallace et al 2018). This observation has a chance to support the Boso SSEs study if the future Kapiti SSEs keep the increasing recurrence intervals with time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Slow Slip Events Following the 2002 Mw 7.1 Hualien Offshore Earthquake Afterslip

Chen

Chan

2021

Preprint

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The recurrence intervals of slow slip events may increase gradually after a large earthquake during the afterslip. Stress perturbations during coseismic and postseismic periods may result in such an increase of intervals. However, the increasing recurrence intervals of slow slip events are rarely observed during an afterslip. The evolution process along with the afterslip remains unclear. We report an observation of slow slip events following the 2002 Mw 7.1 Hualien offshore earthquake afterslip in the southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone. Slow slip events in 2005, 2009, and 2015 are adjacent to the Mw 7.1 earthquake hypocenter. An increasing slow-slip interval of 3.1, 4.2, and 6.2 years has been observed after the earthquake. We calculated coseismic and postseismic slips from the Mw 7.1 earthquake and then estimated the Coulomb stress changes in the slow slip region. The Mw 7.1 earthquake has contributed positive Coulomb stresses to both the 2005 slow-slip region and 2009/2015 repeating slow-slip region. The coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress change on the 2005 slow-slip region is approximately 0.05 MPa and 0.035 MPa, respectively. However, both Coulomb stress changes on the 2009/2015 repeating slow-slip region are not over 0.03 MPa. The ongoing afterslip following the Mw 7.1 earthquake last for at least five years, evolving with a decaying stress rate with time. The long-term stress perturbations may be able to trigger the 2005 slow slip event during the afterslip. The 2009 slow slip event seems to be influenced by the afterslip as well. Postseismic stress evolution and frictional and stressed conditions of the slow-slip region can be a reason to affect the evolution process of slow slip events intervals.

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Three‐Dimensional Modeling of Spontaneous and Triggered Slow‐Slip Events at the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, New Zealand

Cited by 17 publications

References 89 publications

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Cascadia megathrust earthquake rupture model constrained by geodetic fault locking

Slow Slip Events Following the 2002 Mw 7.1 Hualien Offshore Earthquake Afterslip

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