Three-Dimensional Hindcast of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Biogeochemical Dynamics in Lake Onego Ecosystem, 1985–2015. Part I: Long-Term Dynamics and Spatial Distribution

Abstract

Despite a wide-ranging research, there is almost no information regarding the major biogeochemical fluxes that could characterize the past and present state of the European Lake Onego ecosystem and be used for reliable prognostic estimates of its future. To enable such capacity, we adapted and implemented a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamical biogeochemical model of the nutrient cycles in Lake Onego. The model was used to reconstruct three decades of Lake Onego ecosystem dynamics with daily resolution on a 2 × 2 km grid. A comparison with available information from Lake Onego and other large boreal lakes proves that this hindcast is plausible enough to be used as a form of reanalysis. This model will be used as a form of studies of Lake Onego ecosystem, including long-term projections of ecosystem evolution under different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic development.