Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability

Narula, Kapil; Reddy, B. Sudhakara

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.055

Cited by 116 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Based on ESSI indicators' perceived importance, each of the indicators is given a certain weight, after which a proper aggregation method is used to combine them to form a composite energy security index. Using this approach, several organizations and national energy agencies have developed energy security indexes in the past, for example, the "Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk" and the "International Index of Energy Security Risk" [72,73]. This paper, therefore, develops an ESSI for China.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Energy Supply Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

Пин

Zhang

2018

Energies

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Abstract:Energy supply security is a significant part of China's security, directly influencing national security and economic and social sustainability. To ensure both China's present and the future energy supply, it is essential to evaluate and forecast the energy supply level. However, forecasting the energy supply security level is difficult because energy supply security is dynamic, many factors affect it and there is a lack of accurate and comprehensive data. Therefore, based on previous studies and according to the characteristics of energy supply and the social development of China, first, the authors apply a comprehensive evaluation method to quantify the energy supply security. Second, based on the ARIMA-XGBoost hybrid model, the authors create two novel approaches for forecasting the energy supply security level of China. The authors find that: (1) energy supply security is dynamic, and green development has become the theme of China's energy development. The energy industry urgently needs to provide more high-quality ecological energy products to meet the people's desire for a beautiful ecological environment; (2) since the mean absolute percentage errors are below 4.5% when forecasting the energy supply security indicators, the ARIMA-XGBoost hybrid model is more accurate for forecasting China's energy supply security level and (3) the security level of China's energy supply has developed periodic features; the ESSI can improve by about 0.2 every five years, but, due to the low starting point and multiple types of constraints, it is difficult to reach the safety level in a short time.

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Section: Evaluation Of Energy Supply Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

Пин

Zhang

2018

Energies

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“…A comparative assessment reveals that the three indices provide different country rankings, which are inconsistent. This situation is akin to three blind men groping the elephant with each one measuring a different part of the body and asserting that only their assessment is true" (Narula, Reddy 2015). Here we neeed to note, that energy security facets have to be discussed further, in order they could be measured and controlled.…”

Section: Energy Security Perceptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Vosylius et al 2013;Tvaronavičienė 2014;Tvaronavičius, Tvaronavičiene 2008;Scaringelli 2014;Miškinis et al 2013;Travkina, Tvaronavičienė 2015). The way how researchers, politicians and other stakeholders introduce new dimensions is vividly described in recent paper titled "Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability" (Narula, Reddy 2015): "The paper compares three different indices 'Energy Sustainability Index', 'International Index of Energy Security Risk' and 'Energy Architecture Performance Index' along with their variants to examine if they provide consistent results for various countries. A comparative assessment reveals that the three indices provide different country rankings, which are inconsistent.…”

Section: Energy Security Perceptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Security and Energy Efficiency Issues: Household Perspective in European Countries

Tvaronavičienė¹

2016

9th International Scientific Conference “Business and Management 2016”

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Abstract. Aim of presented paper is provide the latest approaches towards energy security, to examine methodological foundations used, and to contribute to the contemporary discussion by providing new insights stemming from emerging needs of enhancing energy security. In the presented paper a role of energy efficiency among other constituents of energy security is being discussed. The second -analyticalpart of paper is devoted to forecasting of long-term (until year 2050) energy intensities in household sectors in the following countries: Lithuania, Estonia, Belgium, Germany, Luxemburg and Bulgaria. Author claims, that revealed differences provide theoretically grounded foundations for further benchmarking of energy intensities.

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“…Energy security can be perceived in very different ways, depending on what stakeholder -public or professional -expresses his/her opinion (e.g. [8,14,24,26,28,42,[45][46][47]). In the context of our research, in which possible effect of clustering phenomenon is discussed, we use energy security concept as synomimous to energy efficiency.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Clusters, innovations and energy efficiency: if relantionship could be traced

Tvaronavičienė¹

2017

MMI

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Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability

Cited by 116 publications

References 29 publications

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

Energy Security and Energy Efficiency Issues: Household Perspective in European Countries

Clusters, innovations and energy efficiency: if relantionship could be traced

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