Threats and Benefits of Exchange Rate Regimes for Ukraine in Terms of European Integration

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to determine threats and benefits of exchange rate regimes in terms of the integration of Ukraine into the European community. Emphasizing features of the manifestation of currency exchange rate in Ukrainian practice is a precondition for choosing the optimal exchange rate regime for Ukraine, which, in its turn, will provide an opportunity to reduce inflation and implement effective tools of monetary and fiscal policies to promote further economic growth and competitiveness of the country. The uses of free-floating exchange rate and «currency board» regimes have either positive effects for Ukraine or certain threats. Methodology. This research is based on a synthesis of data on the uses of exchange rate regimes in Ukraine as an independent. It is considered angular regimes, which are by far the most suitable for Ukraine in terms of the European vector of its development. Peculiarities of using these regimes are revealed and their major threats to the domestic economy are pointed out. This article analyzes the dynamics of the trade balance of payments of Ukraine, the dynamics of the commodity structure of Ukraine`s exports and imports and the external debt of Ukraine. Results. Taking into account the experience of countries, which were in crisis situations, they show the necessity of the uses of freefloating exchange rate regime and possibilities of «currency board» regime, despite threats that they may have. World experience testifies the implementation of structural reforms, effective monetary policy, fiscal policy and discipline of the government. Thorough preparation of Ukraine's transition to the «currency board» regime can justify itself in conditions of crisis and provide impetus to Ukrainian economy benefits. The paper defines conditions under which the success of a new model of exchange rate policy will be achieved. Practical implications. The study accents attention on the specifics of the uses of the free-floating exchange rate and «currency board» regimes in the current recessionary economic and political conditions, and the declared Strategy on Sustainable Development «Ukraine-2020» in terms of European integration. Moreover, advantages and threats of the most favorable exchange rate regimes were identified to overcome the economic crisis, and accordingly create conditions for further economic growth and increase competitiveness of the country. This article provides an opportunity to identify the conditions for success of a new model of exchange rate policy to achieve economic stabilization and the beginning of economic growth. Value/originality. Despite the existing studies in the field of exchange regulation at present, there are no comprehensive concepts and a common approach to the uses of an exchange rate regime in Ukraine to stabilize the economy, create conditions for long-term economic growth and increase the competitiveness of the economy. It identifies the need to conduct this study, focuses the attention on the conceptual basis of freefloating exchange rate and «...

Effect of Ukraine’s Exchange Rate Devaluation on Trade With the Eu

“…Analysis of recent research and publications. Although Ukraine's exchange rate has been studied in recent years in terms of the wider impact on the economy and a more broader discussion on the method of management of the exchange rate itself, for example see [1][2][3][4][5], very little analysis of the impact of Ukraine's exchange rate on trade specifically has been undertaken. Prior to 2014, both practical and theoretical literature focused on the effects of artificially maintaining the exchange rate such as Vorobyov [6] who used PPP method of real exchange rate to show that the UAH was overvalued and adversely affected the macro-economic fundamentals, including trade balance but concluded that although devaluation was necessary, social consequences may lead to further supporting currencies rather than devaluing (as in the case of Argentina and Brazil) and therefore, there is a need to study the wider effects of devaluation first before embarking on such policies.…”