Threat prediction in complex distributed systems using artificial neural network technology

Abstract

In the context of this article, a method for detecting threats based on their forecasting and development in complex distributed systems is proposed. Initially, the relevance of the research topic is substantiated from the point of view of the prospective use of various methods in the framework of threat management and their forecasting in complex distributed systems. Based on the analysis of these methods, a proprietary forecasting method based on the second generation recurrent neural network (RNN) was proposed. The mathematical formulation of the problem is presented, as well as the structure of this neural network and its mathematical model of self-learning, which allows achieving more accurate (with less error) results in the framework of threat prediction (in this case, the level of water rise at gauging stations) in complex distributed systems. An analysis was also made of the effectiveness of the existing and proposed forecasting methods, which showed the stability of the neural network in relation to other forecasting methods: the error of the neural network is 3-20% of actual (real) water levels; the least squares method reaches up to 34.5%, the numerical method in a generalized form - up to 36%; linear regression model – up to 47.5%. Thus, the neural network allows a fairly stable forecast of the flood situation over several days, which allows special services to carry out flood control measures.