Threat of wheat blast to South Asia’s food security: An ex-ante analysis

Abstract

New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia–its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5–10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89–1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132–264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.

Wheat Blast in Bangladesh: The Current Situation and Future Impacts

“…Such prediction based on climate data can be an efficient way to determine times and locations for surveillance and monitoring. In addition, Mottaleb and coworkers used a climate analogue model to find vulnerable regions of wheat blast in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan ( Mottaleb et al, 2018 ). The authors also used those data to estimate potential economic loss when the disease might occur.…”

“…What impacts will be on the food security of Bangladesh and India? Consumption of wheat in South Asia has steadily been increasing since the green revolution in 1960s ( Mottaleb et al, 2018 ). As the population of this region is predicted to significantly increase by about 65% by the year 2050, the demand of staple foods, particularly wheat, must be increased.…”

Mitigating the twin problems of malnutrition and wheat blast by one wheat variety, ‘BARI Gom 33’, in Bangladesh

“…tritici) in Australia [5,6], the re-emergence of wheat stem (or black) rust in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula [7], maize lethal necrosis (MLN) in Kenya [8] and the spread of fall army worm in Africa [9] and its recent spread in India [10], have all threatened global food security. The emergence of the deadly wheat blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-2016 wheat season is the most recent addition to such threats [11][12][13][14].…”

“…In the 2015-2016 wheat season in Bangladesh, wheat blast affected nearly 15,000 ha, or 3.5% of the total 436,817 ha of wheat cropland, and reduced wheat yield by 5-51% in the affected fields [11]. The disease emerged again in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 wheat seasons [13,14].…”

“…The emergence of the wheat blast in Bangladesh has generated severe threats to the food security of more than a billion people in South Asia. A recent study [13] warned that out of a total of 40.85 million ha of wheat cropland in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, nearly 7 million ha (17.1%) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Currently, wheat in India and Pakistan is the major staple food [16], and the choice of wheat as a food item has been gaining popularity in Bangladesh, which is the second major staple after rice [17].…”