Threat Assessment and Management Strategies

Goodwill

Journal of Threat Assessment and Management

et al. 2019

113

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) was utilized to code 2 nonrandom samples of convenience: Subjects who had carried out a lethal terrorist attack in North America between 1993 and 2016 (n ϭ 33), and subjects who were identified as a national security concern, and were either successfully risk managed for at least 2 years, or determined upon investigation to have no intent to mount an attack, were not risk managed, and did not mount an attack during the same period of time (n ϭ 23). The no attack sample was gathered from 2 metropolitan areas in the United States and Canada through law enforcement and mental health counterterrorism investigations. Half the TRAP-18 indicators were found to be significantly different between the samples with medium to large effect sizes ( ϭ .35-.70). The proximal warning behaviors of pathway, identification, energy burst, and last resort were significantly more frequent among the attackers, and directly communicated threat was significantly less frequent. The distal characteristics of ideological framing, changes in thinking and emotion, and creativity and innovation were more frequent among the attackers, and mental disorder was significantly less frequent. The retrospective results are interpreted in the context of other TRAP-18 research, and in relation to other empirical findings concerning lone actor terrorists. Public Significance StatementThe study compares a group of individual terrorists who mounted an attack with a group of individuals who posed a national security concern but did not attack. The instrument for comparison was the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18). The instrument worked well in distinguishing the two groups, and should help professional counterterrorism investigators and law enforcement.

Section: The Trap-18 Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: The Trap-18 Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Some TRAP-18 indicators discriminate between terrorist attackers and other subjects of national security concern.

Goodwill

Journal of Threat Assessment and Management

et al. 2019

113

The Operational Development and Empirical Testing of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP–18)

Journal of Personality Assessment

2018

116

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) is a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of the individual terrorist. It is a rationally derived theoretical model comprising eight proximal warning behaviors and 10 distal characteristics. Empirical research on the TRAP-18 is reviewed, including both nomothetic and idiographic studies of individual terrorists in both the United States and Europe. Mean interrater reliability is 0.895 (Cohen's kappa), ranging from 0.69 to 1.0. Evidence of criterion validity has been demonstrated, including usefulness of the instrument across various extremist ideologies (jihadism, ethnic nationalism, and single-issue), and its ability to discriminate between thwarted and successful attackers. The instrument appears to advance the domain recommendations of Monahan (2012, 2016) for the risk assessment of the individual terrorist. The TRAP-18 is further discussed as a threat assessment instrument for mental health clinicians. The limitations of the current research provide direction for further studies to assess its reliability and construct, discriminant, and predictive validity.

Stalking risks to celebrities and public figures

Wilson¹,

Dempsey²,

Farnham³

et al. 2018

BJPsych advances

SUMMARYProminent figures are frequently subjected to unwanted and intrusive attentions. Such stalking behaviour is often driven by psychotic illness, angrily blaming the public figure for delusional persecution (resentful motivation), or based on erotomanic delusions (intimacy seeking motivation), for example. This behaviour can cause psychological harm to both perpetrator and victim, and is unlawful. In the rare instances where a public figure has been attacked, the perpetrator has usually had a history of such stalking behaviour and of severe mental illness. For these reasons, early identification and diversion into appropriate care and treatment will be for the benefit of both parties and will prevent more serious violence in a minority of cases. The importance of the provision of education to improve both reporting rates by victims and an appropriate response from the criminal justice system is highlighted. A multi-agency approach involving the criminal justice system and mental health services is the most effective means of achieving these aims.DECLARATION OF INTERESTNone.LEARNING OBJECTIVES•Learn that severe mental illness, particularly psychosis, is often an important driver of stalking behaviour•Learn that delusional disorder is a treatable mental illness•Appreciate that prevention rather than prediction is the approach to managing the risks of high-harm low-probability outcomes.