Threat Appraisal and Authoritarianism in Context: Reactions to the European Union Enlargement in Border Regions

Abstract

The present study uses European Union (EU) enlargement as the treatment in a “natural” quasi experiment to analyze the relationship of threat appraisal and authoritarianism. Theoretically it is based on the discussion about the role of contextual variables in the genesis of authoritarianism. Two contradictory perspectives are explicated: the trait model and the situationist model. To test the competing causal hypotheses panel data collected before and after the EU eastern enlargement on perceived threat, authoritarian attitudes, and xenophobia among inhabitants of the German external frontier of the EU (at Wave 1) were analyzed. The use of a cross‐lagged panel design demonstrated that the type of relationship between authoritarianism and perceived threat depended on the kind of threat (material or cultural) that was addressed.

The Relationships Between Internal and External Threats and Right-Wing Attitudes

“…To test this hypothesis, we tested bidirectional pathways between threat and right-wing attitudes in a longitudinal design. In line with previous longitudinal studies on this subject, we expected to find evidence for such bidirectional longitudinal relationships (Matthews et al, 2009; Rippl & Seipel, 2012; Sibley & Duckitt, 2013; Sibley et al, 2007). An important unique feature of this study is that we investigated possible differential longitudinal effects of different types of threats.…”

“…Similar results were found using a time lag of 1 year during a period of global recession (Sibley & Duckitt, 2013). Finally, in the context of EU enlargement, Rippl and Seipel (2012) also reported bidirectional effects between threat perceptions and authoritarianism.…”

“…Given that scholars have argued that both an effect of threat on right-wing attitudes and an effect of right-wing attitudes on threat exist, it is surprising that only a few studies have tried to substantiate bidirectionality in this relationship (Matthews et al, 2009; Rippl & Seipel, 2012; Sibley & Duckitt, 2013; Sibley, Wilson, & Duckitt, 2007). Whereas Matthews et al (2009) showed that perceptions of realistic threat and intergroup anxiety increased SDO, they also found a reverse longitudinal relationship between SDO and realistic threat.…”

“…While these previous studies serve as important indications that the relationship between threat and right-wing attitudes is bidirectional, some limitations of these studies should be noted. First, whereas Sibley et al (2007) and Sibley and Duckitt (2013) investigated dangerous and competitive worldviews and Rippl and Seipel (2012) differentiated between two specific threats (i.e., material and cultural threats), the primary aim of these studies was not to differentiate among the effects of various threats. Second, Rippl and Seipel (2012) did not investigate SDO and they used a very small sample ( N = 91; retention rate of only 18%), which potentially might bias the results due to systematic attrition and the inability to use latent variables.…”

Understanding support for European integration across generations: A study guided by the theory of planned behavior

“…EU institutions have tried to communicate their interest in preserving national identities, even in the most important formal acts (e.g., “The Union shall respect the national identities of its Member States”, Treaty on European Union, Article 6.3). Nonetheless, the perception of the EU as a threat to national identity still seems to be alive, particularly among older people whose attitudes and voting intentions reflect their concern about loss of national identity (see also Rippl & Seipel, 2012 ; Hobolt, 2016 ). It follows that communication strategies designed to foster support for greater EU integration should rely on messages designed to reduce or mitigate this fear.…”