Thirty-Year Prediction of 137Cs Supply from Rivers to Coastal Waters off Fukushima Considering Human Activities

Abstract

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident caused an accumulation of 137Cs in coastal sediment. The 137Cs supply from rivers to the ocean can affect the long-term fate of 137Cs in coastal sediment. Since the Fukushima coastal river basins include large decontaminated and evacuation order areas, considering the decontamination work and resumption of agriculture is important for predicting the 137Cs supply. We conducted a 30-year prediction of the 137Cs supply from the Fukushima coastal rivers to the ocean using a distributed radiocesium prediction model, considering the effects of human activities. In river basins with decontaminated and evacuation order areas, human activities reduced the total 137Cs outflow from agricultural lands, urban lands, and forest areas to the rivers and the 137Cs supply to the ocean by 5.0% and 6.0%, respectively. These results indicated that human activities slightly impacted the 137Cs outflow and supply. The 137Cs supply from rivers impacted by the accident to the coastal sediment was estimated to correspond to 11–36% of the total 137Cs in the coastal sediment in the early phase of the accident. Therefore, the 137Cs supply from rivers to the ocean is important for the long-term behavior of 137Cs in coastal sediment.