Third-party intervention in secessions

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical framework for secessions with third party interventions in ethnically divided countries. An ethnic minority of one country may want to engage in a secession in order to join its ethnic kind in the neighboring country. A secession is an explicit outcome of a conflict between the central government and the separatist region. A third party, the neighboring country, decides whether or not to support the separatist region in the conflict. Supporting a secession is punished with sanctions. The model shows that the third party will only intervene in the conflict if the benefits from annexation are large and if the separatist region's conflict technology is low. In these cases, the third party's support incentivizes the separatists into fighting harder.