Third Millennium Forestry: What climate change might mean to forests and forest management in Ontario

Abstract

Climate change may profoundly influence Ontario's forest ecosystems and their management. Elevated atmospheric C 0 2 concentrations, increased temperature and altered precipitation regimes will affect forest vegetation through their influence on physiological (e.g., photosynthesis, respiration) and ecological processes (e.g., net primary production, decomposition), and may result in dramatic northward shifts in the natural range of forest types and species. More importantly, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disturbances. Silvicultural intervention will increasingly be relied on to maintain forest health, manage declining stands, regenerate disturbed areas and cutovers with desired species and genotypes, maintain genetic diversity, and assist in species migration. Given the increasingly important role of Ontario's forests in national and provincial efforts to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol, afforestation, conservation of existing forests, and increased forest management activities to accelerate the storage of carbon in Ontario's forests will be key aspects of forestry at the start of the third millennium.Key words: adaptation, afforestation, bioenergy, carbon dioxide, climate change, disturbance, intensive forest management, migration, mitigation, sequestration, succession Le changement climatique pourrait modifier en profondeur les Ccosyst5mes forestiers de I'Ontario et la f a~o n de les amtnager. Les concentrations ClevCes de C02 atmosphCrique, la temptrature plus ClevCe et les regimes de precipitations modifiks affecteront la vCg& tation forestibre suite B leurs influences sur les processus physiologiques (p. ex. la photosynthbe, la respiration) et 6cologiques (p. ex. la production nette primaire, la dCcomposition), et pourraient entrainer des diplacements dramatiques vers le nord de la distribution naturelle des types de for& et des espbces. De f a~o n encore plus importante, on s'attend 2 ce que le changement climatique accroisse la frCquence des perturbations naturelles. Les interventions sylvicoles dCpendront de plus en plus du maintien de la santC des for&, de I'amCnagement des peuplements en dkclin, de la rkgtntration des superficies perturbhs et toupees au moyen d'espkes et de gCne types dCsirts, du maintien de la diversitt gCnCtique, et de l'aide clans la migration des espbces. fitant donne le r6le de plus en plus importants que jouent les for& de I'Ontario au niveau des efforts nationaux et provinciaux de correspondance aux objectifs de rtduction des gaz B effets de serre selon le protocole de Kyoto, le boisement, la conservation des forets actuelles, et l'accroissement des activitCs d'amknagement forestier pour accCl6rer la skquestration dur carbone dans les for& ontariennes seront des aspects dominants en foresterie au dtbut de troisibme millCnaire.

An uncertain future for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou): The impact of climate change on winter distribution in Ontario

“…Second, the preferred habitat type of woodland caribou identified within our models (e.g., dense coniferous forest) was currently found in greater quantity in the southwestern portion of northern Ontario. If distributions of preferred habitat shift in response to climate change (as has been suggested by other studies; e.g., Lui, 1990;Parker et al, 2000;Price et al, 2013) our predictions of woodland caribou occurrence would follow changes in landscape patterns of this habitat. Thus, future woodland caribou ranges will not be a straightforward northerly shift, but a function of several sources of uncertainty including habitat, climate and linear disturbances across northern Ontario.…”

Effects of herbicide treatments on biotic components in regenerating northern forests

“…Even as our climate seems to change (Parker et al 2000), many argue that efforts should be made to maintain functioning ecosystems similar to those that were found historically across landscapes (Brown et al 2001). Such maintenance, however, will require developing replacement stands of appropriate species and structures that provide acceptable, potentially historical, forest cover patterns.…”

Vulnerability assessment to climate change of three ecosystem-based forest management projects in Quebec

“…Promote natural regeneration Replant using a mix of species in order to maximise the chances of success under new climatic conditions Replicate the natural regeneration composition if it is insufficient Monitor growth Implement silvicultural practices that favour growth (thinning, partial cuts) Use thinning and selective cutting to remove trees that are suppressed, damaged, or of poor quality Adapt silvicultural practices and principles to maintain optimum species-site association Evaluate the improvement of genotypes over the long-term in a variety of climatic and environmental conditions When planting, use seeds or seedlings with the genotype best adapted to the anticipated future climatic conditions (Parker et al 2000, Spittlehouse and Stewart 2003, Millar et al 2007, Williamson et al 2009). This may mean genotypes obtained from sites further south in the case of the Triad project, whose region covers a large latitudinal gradient, or from sites at lower altitudes for the case of the LWR…”