Thinning sea ice and thawing permafrost: climate change adaptation planning in Nome, Alaska

Birchall, S. Jeff; Bonnett, Nicole

doi:10.1080/17477891.2019.1637331

Cited by 19 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Impacts to transportation systems, access to wild foods and subsistence opportunities from roads and trails, and increased vessel traffic are key weather-related concerns among Nome residents (Kettle et al 2017;Parks et al 2019). In response to these changing conditions, several local-to national-level planning efforts are occurring in Nome (Birchall and Bonnett 2020;Kettle et al 2017;USACE 2019).…”

Section: Nome Alaskamentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

et al. 2020

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Understanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socio-economic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning.

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Section: Nome Alaskamentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

et al. 2020

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“…Barriers to adaptation in the Arctic parallel many of the challenges facing adaptation in diverse regions globally. This includes the existence of pressing socioeconomic problems, institutional and governmental barriers, limited knowledge of future climate risks and effectiveness of potential adaptations, uncertainty, demographic shifts, lack of financial resources, bias to mitigation in climate policy, and limited decision‐making power at local levels (Berman et al, 2020; Birchall & Bonnett, 2020; Labbe et al, 2017; Olsen et al, 2021). In Alaska, for example, the need to relocate high risk villages has been recognized by researchers, decision‐makers, and communities for sometime, and while progress is being made in some locations (Ristroph, 2017), institutional barriers have resulted in negligible progress overall (Albert et al, 2018).…”

Section: Adaptations Are Available But There Are Also Significant Barriers and Limits To Adaptingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rapidly changing Arctic and its societal implications

Ford

Pearce

Canosa

et al. 2021

WIREs Climate Change

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The Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change and is projected to experience the most warming this century of any world region. We review the societal aspects of these current and projected changes. Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge holders living in communities across the Arctic have detected unprecedented increases in temperature, altered precipitation regimes, and changing weather patterns, documenting impacts on terrestrial and marine environments. These local observations situate climate change as one of multiple interacting stressors. Arctic societies have exhibited resilience to climate change, but vulnerabilities are emerging at the nexus of changing environmental conditions and socioeconomic pressures. Infrastructure is highly susceptible to permafrost thaw, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, compounded by the age of infrastructure, maintenance challenges, and cost of adapting. Livelihoods and cultural activities linked to subsistence harvesting have been affected by changes to wildlife, with coping mechanisms undermined by long‐term processes of land dispossession and landscape fragmentation. Reduced sea ice coverage and changing ice dynamics are creating opportunities for enhanced shipping, oil and gas production, and deep‐water fisheries. Legal, infrastructural, economic, and climatic challenges are expected to constrain such developments, with concerns over the distribution of potential benefits. Adaptation is already taking place in some sectors and regions, with efforts directly targeting climate impacts and also addressing underlying determinants of vulnerability. Barriers and limits to adapting are evident. Research that develops projections of future climate impacts is advancing, but studies examining the implications of such changes for communities or economies remain in their infancy. This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews

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“…As climate change progresses, seasons in the Arctic are becoming less consistent, with increasing daily temperature variation and shorter spans of extremely low temperatures (ACIA ). Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions (Birchall and Bonnett ). As a result, and exacerbated by sea level rise and increased storm surge activity, Arctic communities are experiencing increased rates of coastal erosion (Ford et al ).…”

Section: Climate Change Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Arctic's fragile ecosystem is especially vulnerable to rising seasonal temperatures and, in 2018, the IPCC reported that Arctic regions are warming at a rate two to three times that of the global average (IPCC ). The resulting impacts are causing unique challenges for Arctic communities, including placing strain on infrastructure, for instance (Ford et al ; Birchall and Bonnett ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

MacDonald

Birchall

2019

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

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• Climate change impacts affect core infrastructure and resources in the Arctic. Resilience of northern communities depends heavily on proper government leadership and successful implementation of long-term adaptation policies. • Determining adaptive capacity of Arctic communities and developing appropriate policies requires collaboration with local stakeholders who can speak to vulnerability in the context of climate-and non-climate-related factors. • Mainstreaming climate change policies so that they are integrated into existing procedures and policygoals allows local governments to manage present-day issues while enhancing long-term community resilience to climate change. Human-induced changes to global climate have become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years. As the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases, the impacts on both natural and human systems are becoming difficult to manage with the current policies. In Canada, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change is the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate two to three times that of the global average. Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions, which has contributed to a rise in coastal erosion. The ongoing resilience of Arctic communities will depend heavily on their ability to implement successful long-term adaptation policies. The development and implementation of any action on climate change adaptation should involve collaboration with local stakeholders in order to reflect the views and experience of those living in the Arctic.

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Thinning sea ice and thawing permafrost: climate change adaptation planning in Nome, Alaska

Cited by 19 publications

References 50 publications

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

The rapidly changing Arctic and its societal implications

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

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