Thermokarst acceleration in Arctic tundra driven by climate change and fire disturbance

Chen, Yaping; Lara, Mark J.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Frost, G. V.; Hu, Feng Sheng

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.11.011

Cited by 24 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Although wildfires are part of ESMs, our ability to model the precise details of fire regimes is limited (Hantson et al., 2016). Many efforts have been made to build models to simulate the processes and/or effects of coastal erosion (Nielsen et al., 2020), thermokarst development (Chen et al., 2021), wildfires (Descals et al., 2022), and subsea permafrost (Wilkenskjeld et al., 2022). Coupling these processes into ESMs will be helpful to obtain better predictions of Arctic changes and their impacts.…”

Section: Call To Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains

Wu,

Macdonald,

2023

Earth's Future

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The Arctic has experienced rapid change associated with warming since the 1970s. The rapid retreat of the terrestrial cryosphere can release a large amount greenhouse gas from the permafrost regions into the air, and the sea ice decline will affect the CO2 and CH4 balance in the ocean. Changes in the Arctic provide feedback mechanisms that can also impinge on the global ocean’s thermohaline circulation. During the past years, the overall natural processes in the Arctic have been studied although the magnitude and timing of carbon release from the cryosphere changes require further investigation. However, few studies have been conducted to link the natural and social systems in the Arctic. Scientists and policymakers must consider the coupled Arctic land, ocean, and social systems in their decisions for coping with climate change.

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Section: Call To Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains

Wu,

Macdonald,

2023

Earth's Future

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“…Therefore, we propose to use Machine Learning (ML), an effective data-driven approach, to estimate GWS changes at a higher spatial resolution by downscaling GRACE-derived GWS changes to model in situ groundwater level variations. ML has been used for solving several non-linear complex problems in geoscience, (e.g., Berner et al (2020); Chen et al (2021); Dramsch (2020); Sun and Scanlon (2019)), as it does not require the knowledge of exact physical relationships between input and response variables. Further, J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f is thus suitable for empirically modeling complex hydrological processes, such as basin-wide groundwater variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine learning based downscaling of GRACE-estimated groundwater in Central Valley, California

Agarwal

Akyılmaz

Shum

et al. 2023

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Strong evidence points toward an increasing frequency and severity of wildfires throughout the arctic and boreal north (Flannigan et al., 2009; Hanes et al., 2019; Kasischke & Turetsky, 2006; McCarty et al., 2020). Field observations have demonstrated that wildfire can act as a major driver of regional permafrost thaw, with fire contributing toward the expansion of thermokarst (areas where thaw leads to ground subsidence) area in western Canada (Gibson et al., 2018), Alaska (Y. Chen et al., 2021), and Siberia (Yanagiya & Furuya, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Wang

Foster

Lenz

et al. 2023

Reviews of Geophysics

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Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or "tipping points." In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks. Plain Language SummaryIn recent years, discussions of climate change have shown growing interest in "tipping elements" of the Earth system, also imprecisely referred to as "tipping points." This refers to Earth system components like the tropical rainforests of Amazonia or the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets which may exhibit large-scale, long-term changes upon reaching critical global warming, greenhouse gas, or other thresholds. Once such thresholds are passed, some tipping elements could in turn produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or change the Earth's energy balance in ways that moderately reinforce warming. In this review, we summarize the current state of scientific knowledge on 10 systems that some have referred to as potential tipping elements of the climate system. We describe the mechanisms important to each system, highlight the response of these systems to climate change so far, and explain the dynamics of potential future changes that these systems could undergo in response to further climate change. Overall, even considering remaining scientific uncertainties, tipping elements will influence future climate change and may involve major impacts on ecosystems, climate patterns, and the carbon cycle starting later this century. Aggressive efforts to stabilize climate change could significantly reduce such impacts.

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Thermokarst acceleration in Arctic tundra driven by climate change and fire disturbance

Cited by 24 publications

References 68 publications

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains

Machine learning based downscaling of GRACE-estimated groundwater in Central Valley, California

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

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