25The successful licensure of vaccines for biodefense is contingent upon the availability of 26 well-established correlates of protection (CoP) in at least two animal species that can then be 27 applied to humans, without the need to assess efficacy in the clinic. In this report we describe a 28 multivariate model that combines pre-challenge serum antibody endpoint titers (EPT) and values 29 derived from an epitope profiling immune-competition capture (EPICC) assay as a predictor in 30 mice of vaccine-mediated immunity against ricin toxin (RT), a Category B biothreat. EPICC is a 31 modified competition ELISA in which serum samples from vaccinated mice were assessed for 32 their ability to inhibit the capture of soluble, biotinylated (b)-RT by a panel of immobilized 33 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) directed against four immunodominant toxin-neutralizing regions 34 on the enzymatic A chain (RTA) of RT. In a test cohort of mice (n=40) vaccinated with 35 suboptimal doses of the RTA subunit vaccine, RiVax ® , we identified two mAbs, PB10 and 36 SyH7, which had EPICC inhibition values in pre-challenge serum samples that correlated with 37 survival following a challenge with 10 x LD50 of RT administered by intraperitoneal (IP) 38 injection. Analysis of a larger cohort of mice (n=645) revealed that a multivariate model 39 combining endpoint titers and an epitope-profiling immune-competition capture (EPICC) assay 40 values for PB10 and SyH7 as predictive variables had significantly higher statistical power than 41 any one of the independent variables alone. Establishing the correlates of vaccine-mediated 42 protection in mice represents an important steppingstone in the development of RiVax ® as a 43 medical countermeasure under the United States Food and Drug Administration's "Two Animal 44 Rule." 45 46 47 48 Abbreviations: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), epitope profiling immune-49 competition capture (EPICC); Monoclonal antibody (mAb); biotinylated (b), ricin toxin (RT), 50 RT A chain (RTA) 51 3 52 1. Introduction 53 The development of vaccines to counteract biothreats, including toxins, remains a high 54 priority in many countries, including the United States [1, 2]. There are, however, formidable 55 challenges to development and licensure [3]. Foremost is the need to assess vaccine efficacy 56 (VE) in humans in the absence of clinical outcomes, because conventional efficacy studies are 57 not ethical and field trials are not feasible for most if not all the Category A and B Biothreats. 58 Under the Two Animal Rule, however, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) 59 will evaluate VE based on "adequate and well-controlled studies in animal models of the human 60 disease or condition of interest" [4]. Of utmost importance are well-established and robust 61 correlates of protection (CoP) that apply across species and and can be applied to humans. The 62 undertaking of cross-species bridging studies has been successfully applied to anthrax vaccine 63 adsorbed (AVA) to estimate survival probabili...