Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate

Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Markkanen, Tiina; Räisänen, Jouni

doi:10.1002/joc.6466

Cited by 52 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…Indeed, while the species can decline even without a climatic effect 52 , a phenomenon such as warming or the prolonged snow-free periods has never been linked to an increase in willow grouse populations, but evidence from its declining effect is existing -as shown in this paper, in addition to the past papers. The current climatic predictions point to significantly diminishing snow covers in southern and central Finland 54 -a change that is evident from past data as well. It seems that in the worst cases, the strongly light-controlled trigger that controls the camouflage of the willow grouse and other seasonally coat coloured arctic species 19 is not in synchrony with what the species is trying to camouflage in, and these kinds of conditions are to become more frequent 51 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs

Melin

Mehtätalo

Helle

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area-and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs

Melin

Mehtätalo

Helle

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…This temperature is commonly reached in most parts of continental Finland during most winters. However, as these temperatures are predicted to be less frequent especially in southern Finland (Asikainen et al 2019;Ruosteenoja et al 2020), the risk of nun moth becoming a local pest is high.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From a rare inhabitant into a potential pest – status of the nun moth in Finland based on pheromone trapping

Melin¹,

Viiri²,

Tikkanen³

et al. 2020

Silva Fenn.

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Forests are affected by climate change in various ways. This includes abiotic factors such as droughts, but also biotic damage by pest insects. There are numerous examples from cases where pest insects have benefitted from longer growing seasons or from warmer summers. Similarly, new pest insects have been able to expand their range due to climatic conditions that have changed from hostile to tolerable. Such seems to be the case with the nun moth (), an important defoliator of coniferous trees in Europe. For centuries, the species has had massive outbreaks across Central-Europe, while it has been a rare inhabitant in Northern Europe. Recently, the nun moth population in Finland has not only expanded in range, but also grown more abundant. This research note describes the results from the first years (2018â2019) of a monitoring program that is being conducted with pheromone traps across central and southern Finland. So far, the northernmost individuals were trapped near the 64 N degrees. However, there were more southern locations where no moths were trapped. The species was present in every trapping site below the latitude of 62 N degrees. More importantly, at some sites the abundance of the nun moth suggested that local forest damage may already occur. Given the current climatic scenarios for Fennoscandia, it is likely that the nun moth populations will continue to grow, which is why systematic surveys on their abundance and range expansions will be topical.Lymantria monacha

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“…RCP4.5-skenaarion toteutuessa kevään tulon arvioidaan siirryttäessä jaksosta 1971-2000 jaksoon 2040-2069 aikaistuvan parilla kolmella viikolla, Lounais-Suomen saaristossa enemmänkin (Ruosteenoja et al, 2019a). Kesä pitenee molemmista päistä arviolta vajaat kaksi viikkoa ja talven tulo viivästyy todennäköisesti kolmisen viikkoa.…”

Section: Lämpötila Termiset Vuodenajat Ja Lämpösummaunclassified

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset Suomessa metsänhoidon näkökulmasta

Lehtonen¹,

Venäläinen²,

Gregow³

2020

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Growing forests sequester carbon from the atmosphere, and hence forests have an important role in mitigating climate change. Forests are also important as recreational areas, and natural forests are needed in maintaining biodiversity. On the other hand, the economic importance of forests is substantial in Finland as the forest industry is a major contributor to wellbeing in the country. Ongoing climate change and the multiple contradictory interests towards forests expressed from different sectors in society make it important to study how forests can be exploited in a sustainable way. Information on the magnitude and impacts of climate change are needed in revising the forest management recommendations. In this report, we present an assessment of climate change in Finland based on current knowledge and describe the expected effects of the change on forests and forestry. Over the last 150 years, the mean temperature in Finland has already risen by about 2 °C. Presently, the temperature continues to increase with a rate of almost 0.5 °C per decade, and by the mid-century, temperatures in Finland are expected to be approximately 1-1.5 °C higher than at present. The rate of warming during the latter half of the 21st century will largely depend on the future evolution of global greenhouse gas emissions. In Finland, the rate of warming is about twice as large as the global average. In addition to warming, precipitation levels, particularly in winter, are expected to increase in the future. On the other hand, drought may occur in summer more frequently than at present. Increasing temperature and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration have already contributed to accelerating forest growth. In the future, our forests are projected to grow even more rapidly. On the other hand, an increasing frequency of forest damages may partly overrule this development. Particularly, spruce forests are vulnerable to many insect pests but in southern Finland also to drought. An example of a pest benefitting from the warming is the European spruce bark beetle. In winter, reduction of soil frost complicates the logistics of forest harvesting and increases the risk of root damage during the harvest. The risk of wind damage also increases as the soil frost decreases. Internationally, the goal is to limit global warming to less than 2 °C compared to pre-industrial era, i.e., the mid-18th century. This would require rapid global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. So far, limiting the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions has not been adequately successful so that reaching the target would seem likely. Thus, there is a need to be prepared for a more severe warming. In the worst case, the temperature could rise even by more than 4 °C globally by the end of the 21st century. From the forest owner viewpoint, it is important to take care of the growth and vitality of the forest stands and to identify the risks threatening the stands, taking into account the variability of the stands and the terrain. To support risk management, th...

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Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate

Cited by 52 publications

References 42 publications

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs

Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs

From a rare inhabitant into a potential pest – status of the nun moth in Finland based on pheromone trapping

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset Suomessa metsänhoidon näkökulmasta

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