Thermal performance under constant temperatures can accurately predict insect development times across naturally variable microclimates

Schmalensee, Loke von; Gunnarsdóttir, Katrín Hulda; Näslund, Joacim; Gotthard, Karl; Lehmann, Philipp

doi:10.1111/ele.13779

Cited by 50 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 79 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…The relevance of laboratory assays investigating development at constant temperatures for natural populations has repeatedly been questioned. However, several studies confirmed that such laboratory data can at least to some extent be extrapolated (e.g., Fischer et al, 2011 ; von Schmalensee et al, 2021 and literature therein). In any case, we have shown that temperature affects shell morphology.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Stay in shape: Assessing the adaptive potential of shell morphology and its sensitivity to temperature in the invasive New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum through phenotypic plasticity and natural selection in Europe

Männer

Mundinger

Haase

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change may force organisms to adapt genetically or plastically to new environmental conditions. Invasive species show remarkable potential for rapid adaptation. The ovoviviparous New Zealand mud snail (NZMS), Potamopyrgus antipodarum , has successfully established across Europe with two clonally reproducing mitochondrial lineages since its arrival in the first half of the 19th century. Its remarkable variation in shell morphology was shown to be fitness relevant. We investigated the effects of temperature on shell morphology across 11 populations from Germany and the Iberian Peninsula in a common garden across three temperatures. We analyzed size and shape using geometric morphometrics. For both, we compared reaction norms and estimated heritabilities. For size, the interaction of temperature and haplotype explained about 50% of the total variance. We also observed more genotype by environment interactions indicating a higher degree of population differentiation than in shape. Across the three temperatures, size followed the expectations of the temperature‐size rule, with individuals growing larger in cold environments. Changes in shape may have compensated for changes in size affecting space for brooding embryos. Heritability estimates were relatively high. As indicated by the very low coefficients of variation for clonal repeatability ( CV A ), they can probably not be compared in absolute terms. However, they showed some sensitivity to temperature, in haplotype t more so than in z, which was only found in Portugal. The low CV A values indicate that genetic variation among European populations is still restricted with a low potential to react to selection. A considerable fraction of the genetic variation was due to differences between the clonal lineages. The NZMS has apparently not been long enough in Europe to accumulate significant genetic variation relevant for morphological adaptation. As temperature is obviously not the sole factor influencing shell morphology, their interaction will probably not be a factor limiting population persistence under a warming climate in Europe.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Stay in shape: Assessing the adaptive potential of shell morphology and its sensitivity to temperature in the invasive New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum through phenotypic plasticity and natural selection in Europe

Männer

Mundinger

Haase

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…This may lead to a difference in the duration of prewinter of as much as two months between individuals of the same population. Mean summer temperatures in microhabitats at the Swedish field site where our P. napi were collected range up to 20°C (von Schmalensee et al, 2021), and survival was reasonably high at this temperature, but more extreme thermal conditions will likely occur further south in the species range or under future climate change. Our prewinter and winter treatments were both constant, rather than reflecting natural seasonal and daily variation, which can intensify the metabolic costs of prewinter conditions (Williams, Marshall, et al., 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Longer and warmer prewinter periods reduce post‐winter fitness in a diapausing insect

2022

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Diapause is considered an important adaptation for survival of winter; however, insects often enter diapause long before its onset. Thus, diapausing insects must also be able to survive these prewinter conditions which warm temperatures could make quite energetically taxing despite relative inactivity. We tested for both immediate and delayed fitness effects of prewinter conditions in diapausing Pieris napi butterfly pupae, experimentally exposing them to different prewinter treatments in a factorial design. We placed diapausing pupae at one of three temperatures (15, 20 and 25°C) for 1 to 16 weeks, followed by the same standardized winter for all individuals. We monitored survival of pupae at multiple points during the experiment, including after winter, as well as their change in mass. For a subset of individuals, we also made repeated metabolic measurements. We found substantial weight loss during prewinter warm periods, greater during longer prewinter treatments at higher temperatures. This weight loss was associated with elevated metabolic rates at higher temperatures which increased over the duration of the prewinter treatment. Although we found little prewinter mortality associated with these conditions, mortality was much greater post‐winter for individuals in long, warm prewinter treatments and the dry mass of adults that did survive these conditions was lower, highlighting the need to understand chronic or delayed effects of stress on fitness. Ultimately, we found substantial fitness consequences of prewinter conditions for a diapausing insect. Given that climate change will make these prewinter periods both longer and more intense, it will be important to understand how dormant organisms tolerate or reduce the length of these dormant, inactive periods. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

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“…The potential responses of insects and other ectotherms to future climate change have largely been evaluated using predictions modeled from species‐specific thermal performance curves (Kingsolver et al, 2013 ; Sinclair et al, 2016 ; von Schmalensee et al, 2021 ) or studies that experimentally elevate temperature in a lab or field setting. Here, we instead used an innovative approach allowing us to make realistic inferences about organismal performance under climate warming scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes

Walter

Thompson

Powers

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Temperature and its impact on fitness are fundamental for understanding range shifts and population dynamics under climate change. Geographic climate heterogeneity, behavioral and physiological plasticity, and thermal adaptation to local climates make predicting the responses of species to climate change complex. Using larvae from seven geographically distinct wild populations in the eastern United States of the non‐native forest pest Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), we conducted a simulated reciprocal transplant experiment in environmental chambers using six custom temperature regimes representing contemporary conditions near the southern and northern extremes of the US invasion front and projections under two climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Larval growth and development rates increased with climate warming compared with current thermal regimes and tended to be greater for individuals originally sourced from southern rather than northern populations. Although increases in growth and development rates with warming varied somewhat by region of the source population, there was not strong evidence of local adaptation, southern populations tended to outperform those from northern populations in all thermal regimes. Our study demonstrates the utility of simulating thermal regimes under climate change in environmental chambers and emphasizes how the impacts from future increases in temperature can vary based on geographic differences in climate‐related performance among populations.

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Thermal performance under constant temperatures can accurately predict insect development times across naturally variable microclimates

Cited by 50 publications

References 79 publications

Stay in shape: Assessing the adaptive potential of shell morphology and its sensitivity to temperature in the invasive New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum through phenotypic plasticity and natural selection in Europe

Stay in shape: Assessing the adaptive potential of shell morphology and its sensitivity to temperature in the invasive New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum through phenotypic plasticity and natural selection in Europe

Longer and warmer prewinter periods reduce post‐winter fitness in a diapausing insect

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes

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