There exists the “smartest” movement rate to control the epidemic rather than “city lockdown”

Wang, Qiubao; Wu, Hao

doi:10.1016/j.apm.2022.02.018

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Others have modeled the timing of application of NPIs in light of this phenomenon and found it to be quite general (Berestycki et al, 2023;Eksin et al, 2021;Wang and Wu, 2022;Zhang et al, 2021). A general conclusion is that optimal local public health strategies locally depend on the public health decisions made by nearby localities.…”

Section: Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Infectious Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ruktanonchai et al (2020) illustrated that if different countries in the EU came out of lockdown at different times (thereby generating spatiotemporal heterogeneity – as in fact was the case), then there would be many more infections and hospitalizations from COVID-19 than if states came out of lockdown in a coordinated manner. Others have modeled the timing of application of NPIs in light of this phenomenon and found it to be quite general (Berestycki et al, 2023; Eksin et al, 2021; Wang and Wu, 2022; Zhang et al, 2021). A general conclusion is that optimal local public health strategies locally depend on the public health decisions made by nearby localities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Metapopulations, the inflationary effect, and consequences for public health

Kortessis,

Glass,

Gonzalez

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The metapopulation perspective is an important conceptual framework in ecology and evolutionary ecology. Metapopulations are spatially distributed populations linked by dispersal. Both metapopulation models and their community and ecosystem level analogues, metacommunity and meta-ecosystem models, tend to be more stable regionally than locally and display enhanced abundance because of the interplay of spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dispersal (an effect that has been called the “inflationary effect”). We highlight the essential role of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in metapopulation biology, sketch empirical demonstrations of the inflationary effect, and provide a mechanistic interpretation of how the inflationary effect arises and impacts population growth and abundance. We illustrate the effect with examples from the spread of infectious disease. Namely, failure to recognize the full possible effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneity likely enhanced the spread of COVID-19, a failure based on lack of understanding of emergent population processes at large scales which may hamper control and eradication of other infectious diseases. We finish by noting how the effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneity have implicitly played roles in the history of ecology, ranging across subdisciplines as diverse as natural enemy-victim dynamics, species coexistence, and conservation biology. Seriously confronting the complexity of spatiotemporal heterogeneity could push many of these subdisciplines forward.

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Section: Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Infectious Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metapopulations, the inflationary effect, and consequences for public health

Kortessis,

Glass,

Gonzalez

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…In a study published in 2021, Verma et al [31] described the connection between population patches in terms of mean-field diffusion coupling, developed an SEIR infectious disease model, and observed rich dynamics such as synchronization, birhythmicity, and bifurcation. From a more comprehensive perspective, Wang et al [32] constructed a stochastic SIR model introducing time delay and Gaussian white noise to simulate the disease prevalence between two adjacent regions and compared the numerical simulation results with the actual data of the COVID-19 infection to verify the accuracy of the model, in addition to demonstrating the existence of an optimal population movement rate between the two regions, a finding that has great implications for the development of disease prevention policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of asymptomatic cases and human mobility on epidemic propagation in an SAIS network model

Zhang,

Sun,

Liu

2024

Nonlinear Dyn

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The impact of population mobility is nonnegligible on the spread of infectious diseases. In this study, we construct a network SIS model that accounts for the impact of population mobility between regions, using a nonlinear infection rate and dividing the infected into symptomatic and asymptomatic groups. First, the study analyses the stability of equilibrium points by constructing the Lyapunov function and validating it using numerical experiments. Secondly, a special form of the basic regeneration number was attained using the next generation matrix method. This result inspires us to pay more attention to asymptomatic infections in the disease control process so that we can stabilize the population to a state where asymptomatic infections are extinct as quickly as possible and facilitate the subsequent epidemic control. Additionally, the results of numerical simulations further demonstrate that for people with different degrees, we can adopt corresponding ideas respectively to determine the optimal movement rate, which will avoid disease infection to a greater extent. Our study will serve as a guide for the development of infectious disease prevention and control policies.

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