There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

Cianfrani, Carmen; Maiorano, Luigi; Loy, Anna; Kranz, Andreas; Lehmann, Anthony; Maggini, Ramona; Guisan, Antoine

doi:10.1111/acv.12033

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…In this context, species distribution models (hereafter SDMs) represent an important and potentially useful tool, commonly used in conservation and management planning of single species at local, national, regional, or continental levels (Puddu et al 2009;Cianfrani et al 2011Cianfrani et al , 2013Falcucci et al 2013). Previously published SDMs for Apennine brown bears have been calibrated over the entire bear activity period (Posillico et al 2004;Falcucci et al 2008Falcucci et al , 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the distribution of Apennine brown bears during hyperphagia to reduce the impact of wild boar hunting

et al. 2015

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The Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) survives today\ud in a relict population of about 50 bears in the central Apennines,\ud even though they have been long protected and habitat suitability\ud at the landscape scale does not appear to be a limiting factor for\ud population recovery. Multiple uses within the bear range may\ud increase disturbance and chances of human-caused mortality,\ud including wild boar hunting drives with dogs conducted in the fall\ud and coinciding with hyperphagia in bears. Although wild boar\ud hunting drives represent a very popular recreational activity\ud throughout the central Apennines, this is a very invasive practice\ud and is thought to expert both direct and indirect detrimental effects\ud on bears. In order to foster the progressive abandonment of wild\ud boar hunting drives in the bear range in favor of less impacting\ud hunting methods, we developed a species distribution model (SDM)\ud to identify areas of likely bear presence during hyperphagia. This\ud SDM could represent the basis to develop a hunting zoning system\ud useful to modulate wild boar hunting regimes according to the bear\ud occurrence. Starting from a large dataset of bear occurrences\ud collected from September to November (2005–2010) within the\ud core distribution range of the bear (n = 5746 GPS- and\ud VHF-telemetry locations on 25 adult and subadult bears, plus other\ud signs of bear presence), we modeled the distribution of bears during\ud hyperphagia and selected candidate models using second order corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc). The final model\ud included 16 environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic\ud variables and was evaluated using the continuous Boyce index\ud (0.91). By intersecting the bear occurrence model with a proxy of\ud wild boar hunting intensity, we identified the areas where the\ud banning of wild boar hunting drives represents a priority, and where\ud less impacting hunting regimes are urgently needed. By discussing\ud how such a model can be used to facilitate consensus toward\ud alternative hunting management scenarios, we believe our\ud approach can be extended to other small populations of bears, and\ud of other species as well, that live in multiple-use landscapes and\ud are in need of recovery

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the distribution of Apennine brown bears during hyperphagia to reduce the impact of wild boar hunting

et al. 2015

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“…in habitat suitability assessment), multicriteria methods offer tools for modelling expert knowledge. This study attempts to prove that expert knowledge (even when no other data is available) (Doswald et al 2007, Cianfrani et al 2013 can be used in order to generate a habitat suitability model; however, the model needs to be validated after the species reintroduction. The model can be validated by using indirect records of species presence or by using data obtained from the animals using GPS.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roe deer reintroduction in central Portugal: a tool for Iberian wolf conservation

Cruz¹,

Fonseca²,

Carvalho³

et al. 2014

Galemys

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Species reintroduction is an increasingly important tool for species recovery programs and habitat restoration initiatives worldwide. Roe deer Capreolus capreolus (Linnaeus, 1758) densities are very low in central west Portugal (the Freita, Arada, and Montemuro mountains). This area is inhabited by the endangered Iberian wolf Canis lupus signatus Cabrera, 1907, whose numbers have dramatically decreased since the 20th century. An important step in a roe deer reintroduction program is to establish suitable reintroduction sites. The aim of the study was to identify such sites in central Portugal. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in combination with a GIS was applied to develop a habitat suitability model, which integrated empirical models and expert knowledge. The variables used in the model included land use, hydrographic network, asphalted roads, population/villages, and relief. Three reintroduction sites suitable for roe deer were identified as potential habitats for their future natural expansion. Those sites were considered as preliminary ones. Finally, future goals and actions are discussed in relation to the promotion of the ecological and social conditions that would favour the survival of roe deer and Iberian wolf in central Portugal.

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“…The integrated study of organisms at multiple behavioural and organisational levels and scales in space and time is a current frontier in ecology (McGarigal et al 2016;Yackulic & Ginsberg 2016). Similar combinations of habitat suitability and connectivity models to the one presented in this thesis have increasingly been applied to aid conservation decisions (Cianfrani et al 2013;Dickson et al 2013) and, more rarely, invasive species management (Stewart-Koster et al 2015). Yet, Glen et al (2013) suggested that 'integrated landscape approaches' based on metapopulation theory, connectivity models and spatial optimization are currently underutilized to inform applied biosecurity problems.…”

Section: Other Study Systems and Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Similar combinations of habitat suitability and connectivity models have been used to study mobile species' use of entire landscapes (Cianfrani et al 2013;Dickson et al 2013;StewartKoster et al 2015). In this thesis, I took a resource-based modelling approach (Hartemink et al 2015) -building on the ecological or behavioural factors influencing the spatial population patterns of feral pigsand applied models to two seasonal scenarios (wet and dry).…”

Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The purpose of research question 1 was to gain a more complete understanding of mobile species' use of entire landscapes (Cianfrani et al 2013;Dickson et al 2013;Stewart-Koster et al 2015). Resource-based habitat approaches such as the one adopted in this thesis have recently been recommended for application to the holistic study of pathogen-host interactions (Hartemink et al 2015).…”

Section: Synthesis Of the Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling seasonal habitat suitability and connectivity for feral pigs in northern Australia: towards risk-based management of infectious animal diseases with wildlife hosts

Froese¹

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Infectious animal diseases are a major biosecurity threat in an increasingly connected world.Wildlife hosts are a well-recognized risk factor for disease introduction, establishment and spread.Northern Australia is vulnerable to disease incursions from neighbouring countries, and widespread invasive feral pigs (Sus scrofa) can seriously complicate post-border disease management. The aim of this thesis was to generate new regional-scale spatial knowledge of feral pig populations in northern Australia to inform risk-based management of directly transmitted infectious animal diseases for which feral pigs are a host.Due to environmental variability and empirical knowledge gaps across this vast region, I adopted a resource-based modelling approach, based on expert knowledge but rooted in landscape ecological theory, to answer three research questions at multiple levels of biological organisation.Specifically, I conceptualized feral pigs in northern Australia as a metapopulation and the landscape as displaying a patch-corridor-matrix structure. At the level of individual feral pig breeding herds, I explored the selection of supplementary and complementary resources within home ranges. At the level of local subpopulations, consisting of several herds with adjacent or overlapping home ranges, I used a habitat suitability modelling approach to investigate the distribution of potential patches of breeding habitat emerging from the interactions between resources and home range movements. At the metapopulation level, I examined potential dispersal pathways between many such patches using a habitat connectivity modelling approach. As feral pig movements and distributional patterns vary with conditions, I applied models to two seasonal scenarios (wet and dry) corresponding to northern Australia's annual rainfall cycle.This thesis contributed methodological advances and new ecological insights. I developed a novel combined methodology, spatial pattern suitability analysis, for capturing feral pigs' resourceseeking home range movements based on expert-elicited response-to-pattern curves and spatial moving window analysis. Based on landscape ecological principles, this methodology improves the application of resource-based Bayesian networks models to mobile animals. I found that habitat suitability for persistent feral pig breeding in northern Australia is dependent on spatial interactions between four key habitat requirements: water and food resources as well as protection from heat and from disturbance. Through scenario analysis and empirical validation I showed that habitat suitability at the regional scale is most reliably modelled as a function of distance to supplementary and complementary resource patches. When applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario, mapped model results indicated that the spatial distribution of feral pig habitat patches varied markedly. Importantly, empirically validated findings suggest that dry season conditions restrict overall habitat suitability for feral pig breeding in northern...

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There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

Cited by 27 publications

References 44 publications

Modeling the distribution of Apennine brown bears during hyperphagia to reduce the impact of wild boar hunting

Modeling the distribution of Apennine brown bears during hyperphagia to reduce the impact of wild boar hunting

Roe deer reintroduction in central Portugal: a tool for Iberian wolf conservation

Modelling seasonal habitat suitability and connectivity for feral pigs in northern Australia: towards risk-based management of infectious animal diseases with wildlife hosts

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