Theory, History, and Political Economy

Gailmard, Sean

doi:10.1561/115.00000003

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…First, I show that in a large class of research designs—those with sequential behavioral outcomes—theory is necessary for the identification of estimands like the ATE. This finding about the role of theory in establishing internal validity complements recent work on the necessity of theory for causal generalization (Gailmard 2021) or external validity (Slough and Tyson 2021). It also advances ongoing debates on the role of theory in identification‐driven research (Ashworth, Berry, and Bueno de Mesquita 2015; Clark and Golder 2015; Franzese 2020; Huber 2017; Samii 2016).…”

supporting

confidence: 81%

Phantom Counterfactuals

Slough

2022

American J Political Sci

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Researchers often seek to identify the effects of a treatment on a sequence of behaviors, such as whether citizens register to vote and whether they then cast ballots. I show that average treatment effects (ATEs) are only identified until the first behavior (registering to vote) that affects the set of possible subsequent actions (voting). When one action changes the set of possible subsequent actions, it creates ‘phantom counterfactuals,’ or undefined potential outcomes, which render ATEs unidentified. I show that applied theory allows researchers to diagnose phantom counterfactuals, which helps to recognize unidentified ATEs and focus instead on other estimands that are identified. I illustrate this approach using a stylized model of crime reporting, showing how different theories generate different sets of identified estimands while holding constant an experimental design. I thereby establish the necessity of applied theory for causal identification in empirical research with sequential behavioral outcomes.

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supporting

confidence: 81%

Phantom Counterfactuals

Slough

2022

American J Political Sci

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“…Gailmard (2021) suggests informally that external validity is a theoretical property associated with a mechanism.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

External Validity and Meta‐Analysis

Slough

Tyson

2022

American J Political Sci

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Meta‐analysis is a method that combines estimates from studies conducted on different samples, in different contexts, or at different times. Social scientists increasingly use meta‐analyses to aggregate evidence and learn about general substantive phenomena. We develop a framework to examine the theoretical foundations of meta‐analysis, with emphasis on clarifying the role of external validity. We identify the conditions under which multiple studies are target‐equivalent, meaning they identify the same empirical target. Our main result shows that external validity and harmonization, in comparisons made and how outcomes are measured, are necessary and sufficient for target‐equivalence. We examine common formulations of meta‐analysis—fixed‐ and random‐effects models—developing the theoretical assumptions that underpin them and providing design‐based identification results for these models. We then provide practical guidance based on our framework and results. Our results reveal limits to agnostic approaches to the combination of causal evidence from multiple studies.

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“…My study shows that state repression can create multiple developmental equilibria across space, adding human capital shocks to the library of mechanisms that may link coercive institutions to worse development in the modern day (Gailmard 2021). My study also shows when other theories of persistence do not generalize, and provides a within-case explanation that is plausible in contexts where governing institutions eradicate well-off or intellectual groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

State Terror and Long-Run Development: The Persistence of the Khmer Rouge

Grasse

2023

Am Polit Sci Rev

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Does mass repression have a long-term economic legacy, and if so, what explains persistence? I argue repression can undermine development by delimiting human capital. I study the aftermath of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. The regime implemented a campaign of violence to reorganize society, yet governing elites varied across the communist ideological spectrum. I exploit an arbitrary border that allocated villages to either the loyalist Mok or the relatively moderate Sy in Kampong Speu province. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find villages in the more extremist Southwest zone are poorer today compared with villages in the adjacent West zone, and had lower human capital immediately after the regime. Exposure to more intense repression shapes labor markets and child health, explaining intergenerational persistence. I find no conclusive evidence for other persistence channels. My findings add a novel pathway to the library of mechanisms which explain why historical coercion undermines development.

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Theory, History, and Political Economy

Cited by 14 publications

References 32 publications

Phantom Counterfactuals

Phantom Counterfactuals

External Validity and Meta‐Analysis

State Terror and Long-Run Development: The Persistence of the Khmer Rouge

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